老龄化对房地产市场需求的影响研究——基于分层和非对称视角的分析

Research on the Impact of Aging on Demand in the Real Estate Market——Analysis based on layered and asymmetric perspectives

系统考察老龄化对房地产市场价格的影响,既有利于为政府制定合理的房地产市场调控政策提供依据,也能够为房地产企业制定具体的战略规划提供参考。本文阐述了老龄化影响房地产市场的理论机制,认为老龄化主要通过购买力下降、消费转移、财富代际转移等三种效应作用于房价。在不同条件下,老龄化对房价的影响方向和影响强度会发生改变。在此基础上,本文通过面板分位数模型、面板门槛模型,实证分析老龄化对房价的影响。研究发现:老龄化对房价具有明显的分层影响与非对称影响,在收入水平跨过门槛值后,老龄化也能够引致购房需求增加。本文的研究为老龄化与房地产价格的关系提供了新的研究视角,并为人口发展新形势下,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展提供了政策参考。

A systematic investigation of the impact of population aging on the housing prices is not only conducive for governments to formulate reasonable regulation policies but also helpful for enterprises to formulate specific strategic planning.This paper sorts out the theoretical mechanism of population aging on housing prices,and argues that population aging affects the housing price through purchasing power,consumption transfer and the intergenerational transfer of wealth.Under different conditions,the direction and intensity of population aging's impact on housing prices is different.Based on this,this study combines the panel quantile model and panel threshold model to investigate the stratification effect of population aging on housing and its asymmetric effects under different regimes of housing prices and resident income.Research has found that aging has a significant stratified and asymmetric impact on housing prices.After the income level crosses the threshold,aging can also lead to an increase in demand for housing purchases.The research in this paper provides a new research perspective on the relationship between aging and housing prices,and provides a policy reference for promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market under the new situation of population development.