储罐区自然灾害诱发工业灾害风险定量评估框架模型

Framework model for quantitative risk assessment of industrial disaster induced by natural disasters in storage tank area

为提升自然灾害诱发储罐区工业灾害风险管理精细化水平,降低灾害损失,提出1种自然灾害诱发储罐区工业灾害风险的定量评估框架模型。该模型将工业事故多米诺效应量化评价模型拓展,提出自然灾害诱发的储罐结构破坏概率和内容物泄漏频率的计算方法,建立储罐安全屏障对事故升级概率和场景频率影响的量化模型,将框架模型应用于某储罐区雷电风险评价,以个人风险区域定量表征罐区雷电灾害。研究结果表明:该框架模型考虑自然灾害和技术灾害致灾规律,可量化评估安全屏障效用,辅以灾害情景仿真技术,能够提高自然灾害作用下储罐区承灾体暴露性和脆弱性分析精准度。研究结果可为该类灾害事故应急预案编制和应急响应提供科学参考。

In order to improve the refinement level of risk management on the industrial disaster in storage tank area induced by natural disasters and reduce the disaster losses,a quantitative assessment framework model of industrial disaster risk in storage tank area induced by natural disasters was proposed.The quantitative assessment model of domino effect of industrial accidents was extended,and the calculation methods of damage probability of storage tank structure and leakage frequency of content induced by natural disasters were proposed.The quantitative model of the influence of storage tank safety barrier on the accident escalation probability and scene frequency was established,then the framework model was applied to the lightning risk assessment of a storage tank area,and the lightning disaster in the tank area was quantitatively characterized by the individual risk area.The results show that the framework model considers the disaster-causing laws of natural disasters and technical disasters,and can quantitatively assess the effectiveness of safety barriers.With the help of disaster scenario simulation technology,it can improve the accuracy of exposure and vulnerability analysis of hazard-affected bodies in storage tank areas under natural disasters.The research results can provide scientific reference for the compilation of emergency plans and emergency response for such disasters.