区域协调发展下的生产安全事故时空演化特征

Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of work safety accidents under regionally coordinated development

为了明确区域风险源的空间分布及生产安全事故的空间相关性,探索区域生产安全事故的时空演变规律。以四大经济区划分下我国国内(不含港澳台,下同)的31个省(自治区、直辖市)2005—2020年的面板数据作为研究样本,通过多种时空特征分析方法可视化展示我国国内生产安全事故的时空分布特征,并运用探索性空间数据分析(exploratory spatial data analysis,ESDA)方法分析其空间相关性演化过程。研究结果表明:生产安全状况的空间分布由“高-高”集聚转为“低-低”集聚为主,事故空间分布不平衡问题显著;目前事故空间集聚稳步提高,区域差异减小,对周边地区有正面空间溢出效应,东部沿海地区通过“涓滴效应”逐步改善了周边省份和地区的生产安全状况。研究结果可为具体调整各区域生产安全状况提供参考。

To ascertain the spatial distribution of regional risk sources and the spatial correlation of work safety accidents,and explore the spatial and temporal evolution laws of regional work safety accidents,the panel data of 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2005 to 2020 under the division of four major economic zones were used as research samples.The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of work safety accidents in China were visually displayed through a variety of spatial and temporal characteristic analysis methods,and the exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA)method was used to analyze the spatial correlation evolution process.The results show that the spatial distribution of work safety situation changes from“high-high”agglomeration to“low-low”agglomeration,and the imbalance problem of accident spatial distribution is significant.At present,the spatial agglomeration of accidents is steadily increasing,the regional difference is decreasing,and there is a positive spatial spillover effect on the surrounding areas.The eastern coastal areas have gradually improved the work safety situation of the surrounding provinces and regions through the“trickle-down effect”.The research results can provide reference for the specific adjustment of work safety situation in each region.