基于多时段QCA的煤矿事故致因演变规律研究

Study on evolution laws of coal mine accident causations based on multi-temporal QCA

为了防范和减少煤矿事故,保障能源安全,本文以2001—2010年和2011—2020年各40起典型煤矿事故为研究对象,基于TOE框架构建技术、组织和环境三个层面的事故致因表,运用多时段定性比较分析方法(mtQCA)进行组态分析,探究两阶段煤矿事故的致因路径和演变规律。研究结果表明:阶段一和阶段二分别存在着6条和4条组态路径,并可以聚类归纳为4种事故类型:技术主导型、组织管理主导型、环境主导型和技术-组织联动型;组织管理问题仍是煤矿安全事故的主要原因,特别是违规行为和监管不力;在多时段比较分析中,存在多重轨迹演化的现象,技术-组织联动型和环境主导型的变化轨迹是“转折轨迹”,技术主导型和组织管理主导型的变化轨迹是“主导轨迹”。最后,针对事故的不同类型和演变规律,提出预防与应对措施,可为提高煤矿安全生产管理水平提供参考。

In order to prevent and reduce the coal mine accidents and guarantee the energy safety,40 typical coal mine accidents in each of the years 2001—2010 and 2011—2020 were taken as the research objects,and the accident causation table at the technical,organizational and environmental levels was constructed based on the TOE framework.The configuration analysis was carried out by applying the method of multitemporal qualitative comparative analysis(mtQCA),and the causation paths and evolution laws of coal mine accidents in the two stages were explored.The results show that there are six and four configuration paths in stage 1 and stage 2,respectively,which are clustered into four types of accidents:technology-dominated type,organizational management-dominated type,environment-dominated type,and technology-organizational linkage.The organizational management problems are still the main cause of coal mine safety accidents,especially the violation behavior and poor supervision.In the multi-temporal comparative analysis,the phenomenon of multiple trajectory evolution is found.The change trajectories of technology-organization linkage type and the environment-dominated type are the“turning trajectory”,and the change trajectories of technology-dominated type and the organizational management-dominated type are the“dominant trajectory”.Finally,the prevention and response measures are proposed for the different types of accidents and their evolution laws,which can provide reference for improving the work safety management level of coal mines.