Assessing the effect of invasive organisms on forests under information uncertainty: The case of pine wood nematode in continental Europe

Forests worldwide are experiencing increasingly intense biotic disturbances;however,assessing impacts of these disturbances is challenging due to the diverse range of organisms involved and the complex interactions among them.This particularly applies to invasive species,which can greatly alter ecological processes in their invaded territories.Here we focus on the pine wood nematode(PWN,Bursaphelenchus xylophilus),an invasive pathogen that has caused extensive mortality of pines in East Asia and more recently has invaded southern Europe.It is expected to expand its range into continental Europe with heavy impacts possible.Given the unknown dynamics of PWN in continental Europe,we reviewed laboratory and field experiments conducted in Asia and southern Europe to parameterize the main components of PWN biology and host-pathogen interactions in the Biotic Disturbance Engine(BITE),a model designed to implement a variety of forest biotic agents,from fungi to large herbivores.To simulate dynamically changing host availability and conditions,BITE was coupled with the forest landscape model iLand.The potential impacts of introducing PWN were assessed in a Central European forest landscape(40,928ha),likely within PWN’s reach in future decades.A parameter sensitivity analysis indicated a substantial influence of factors related to dispersal,colonization,and vegetation impact,whereas parameters related to population growth manifested a minor effect.Selection of different assumptions about biological processes resulted in differential timing and size of the main mortality wave,eliminating 40%–95%of pine trees within 100 years post-introduction,with a maximum annual carbon loss between 1.3%and 4.2%.PWN-induced tree mortality reduced the Gross Primary Productivity,increased heterotrophic respiration,and generated a distinct legacy sink effect in the recovery period.This assessment has corroborated the ecological plausibility of the simulated dynamics and highlighted the need for new strategies to navigate the substantial uncertainty in the agent’s biology and population dynamics.