能源匮乏型城市新型电力系统构建的电源侧多情景分析——以广州市为例

Multi-Scenario Analysis on the Power Supply Side of the Construction of New-Generation Power System in Energy-Deficient Cities:A Case Study of Guangzhou,China

“安全高效”“清洁低碳”是构建新型电力系统的基本要求和核心目标。化石能源、可再生能源“双匮乏”的超大型城市在新型电力系统电源侧建设方面面临巨大挑战。构建指标体系并量化探测电源侧建设现状、未来趋势和存在的短板是精准推动新型电力系统建设的关键环节。以具有“能源匮乏严重、电力负荷密度极高”典型特征的广州市为例,构建新型电力系统电源侧指标体系,设置六种可能的供电情景,分析不同情景下新型电力系统的特征演进趋势,探寻能源匮乏型城市构建新型电力系统的突破口。结果显示,广州市电力自给率逐年提升,至2030年,A5情景下电力自给率可以达到80%,其他情景下可达68%。但电量自给率在“十五五”期间不升反降,2030年A5情景最高可达50%,A1情景最低仅有36%,电力电量差距大,电力供应安全依然难以保障。六种供电情景下,A3情景相对最为清洁低碳,A5情景最为安全,A4情景在不同阶段可以兼顾安全和低碳,政府可根据其发展目标和侧重点选择最适合的发展情景。广州市构建新型电力系统最大的短板是“低清洁度”,而广州市无法通过发展本地高比例可再生能源来破解这一难题,提高外购电的可再生能源比例才是其最优突破口。到2030年,外购电中可再生能源供电占总用电量的比例分别提高至35%、40%和45%左右时,广州市可以分别实现慢速、中速和快速新型电力系统电源侧建设目标。研究可为构建新型电力系统指标体系奠定前期研究基础,为能源匮乏型城市探索出一套新型电力系统电源侧构建的最佳组合模式。

''Safety and efficiency'',as well as''clean and low-carbon''are the fundamental requirements and key targets in building a new-generation power system.The construction of new-generation power systems in fossil and renewable energy''double energy-deficient''mega cities faces greater challenges.It is crucial to accurately promote the construction of new-generation power systems by constructing an indicator system and quantitatively detecting the current situation,future trends,and shortcomings of power-side construction.By taking Guangzhou,a city with characteristics of severe energy deficiency and extremely heavy power load,as an example,this study has constructed a power-side indicator system for the new-generation power systems and set up six potential power supply scenarios,quantitatively analyzed the evolutionary trends of characteristics and explored the breakthrough points for building the new-generation power systems in energy deficient cities.The results indicate that the self-sufficiency rates of power supply capacity have been increasing annually.It can reach 80%under the A5 scenario,and 68%under other scenarios by 2030.However,the self-sufficiency rates of power supply quantity decreased instead of increasing during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.In 2030,the A5 scenario can reach a maximum of 50%,and the A1 scenario can reach a minimum of only 36%,with a large gap in electricity,and the security risks of electricity supply are still elusive.The A3 scenario has the cleanest and lowest carbon,the A5 scenario is the safest,and the A4 scenario can balance between security and low carbon at different stages.Therefore,the government can choose the most suitable development scenario according to its goals and focus.The characteristic of''low cleanliness''is the biggest shortcoming for Guangzhou,and Guangzhou cannot solve this problem by developing a high proportion of local renewable energy.Improving the renewable energy ratio of the purchased electricity is the optimal and only breakthrough.By 2030,when the proportions of renewable energy in the purchased electricity increase to about 35%,40%and 45%,Guangzhou may realize the construction of the supply side of the new-generation power systems at slow speed,medium speed,and fast speed,respectively.This study can provide a preliminary research basis for building a new-generation power system index system and explore an optimal combination model for constructing the supply side of a new-generation power system for energy-deficient cities.