油气管道事故原因分类模型及其社会网络分析

Classification model of oil and gas pipeline accidents causes and its social network analysis

为提高油气管道事故预防策略的有效性,首先,基于系统理论事故建模与过程(STAMP)模型及人为因素分析与分类系统(HFACS)模型,建立油气管道事故预防控制结构,分析国内外35起油气管道事故原因,并依据扎根理论对分析结果进行统计编码,得出油气管道事故原因分类模型;其次,应用社会网络分析法构建油气管道事故原因关系网络,通过核心—边缘分析、中心性分析和关联方向指数分析,识别油气管道事故原因中核心及具有高关联性和强影响力因素。研究结果表明:油气管道事故原因分类模型包含6个层次:政府及监管部门因素、第三方因素、运营商组织因素、运营商不安全监督、现场人员不安全行为的前提条件、现场人员的不安全行为,并可将其细分为22个最底层原因因素。其中,政府及监管部门因素、运营商组织因素、运营商不安全监督和第三方因素均为核心因素;制度缺陷、监督不充分、运行计划不当、第三方破坏行为、管材与焊缝缺陷、施工/维修/配件问题、技能失误均为具有高关联性和强影响力因素。

In order to improve the effectiveness of oil and gas pipeline accident prevention strategies,a classification model for the causes of oil and gas pipeline accidents was developed,and social network analysis was applied to the classification model.Firstly,the STAMP model and HFACS model were combined to get the control structure of oil and gas pipeline accident prevention,and then the causes of 35 oil and gas pipeline accidents at home and abroad were analyzed according to the control structure.The analysis results were coded using grounded theory to get the classification model for the causes of oil and gas pipeline accidents.Social network analysis methods were applied to construct a relationship network of factors related to oil and gas pipeline accidents,and core edge analysis,centrality analysis,and correlation direction index analysis were used to identify the core factors and factors with high correlation and strong influence in the oil and gas pipeline accident classification model.The research results show that the classification model for the causes of oil and gas pipeline accidents included 6 levels and 22 bottom cause factors,which are government and regulatory factors,third-party factors,operator organizational factors,operator unsafe supervision and the prerequisites for unsafe behavior of on-site personnel.Among the causal factors,the internal factors of the government and regulatory authorities,organizational factors of operators,unsafe supervision of operators,and third-party factors are core factors.System flaws,insufficient supervision,improper operation plans,third-party sabotage behavior,pipeline and weld defects,construction/repair/accessory issues,and skill errors are factors with high correlation and strong influence.