全球产业链新平衡:净出口会成为影响我国经济总量的重要因素吗?

A New Balancing of the Global Industrial Chain:Will Net Exports Become a More Important Factor in China's Economic Growth?

改革开放以来,净出口是我国拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”中重要一环,不过对GDP增长的贡献波动较大。中美贸易摩擦加剧后,中美双边贸易份额明显下滑,产业链一度出现从中国向其他出口国转移的现象。但中美需求并未真正脱钩,新冠疫情后中国和其他新兴市场国家在出口领域的竞争有望进入一个新的平衡。2024年一季度以来,全球PMI共振或许意味着全球产业链进入新平衡。我们对2024年中国出口进行测算,从总量视角和分项驱动视角出发,在中性条件下测算出我国2024年出口增速或在1.5%~2%,对我国2024年GDP增长贡献率或在1%附近,拉动作用有限。考虑到消费、投资等其他宏观因素的影响,对经济总量的影响或有限。

Since the launch of the reform and opening up policies,net exports have been one of the main drivers of China's economic growth,despite wide fluctuations in their relative contribution to GDP expansion.Trade friction between China and the United States has been a key factor in that volatility in recent years,and bilateral trade has seen a significant decline in its share of China's total trade.Global supply chains have shifted some of their sourcing to other markets,but the economies of China and the US have not decoupled.Export competition between China and other emerging market countries is expected to enter a new equilibrium as a result of the end of the distortions stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic.Since the first quarter of this year,the PMIs of economies around the world have been more in step with each other,implying that the global industrial supply chain has indeed reached a new equilibrium.This paper examines China's exports in 2024,from the aggregate perspective as well as key export categories.Under neutral conditions,China's export growth rate in 2024 should be between 1.5%and 2%,contributing about 1 percentage point to China's GDP growth.But considering the other key macro factors such as consumption and investment,the impact on the overall economy may be limited.