气候变化背景下天津地区采暖期变化特征分析

Impact of Climate Change on Heating Season in Tianjin Area

利用1971—2023年逐日平均气温数据及2001—2021年天津市供热数据,分析气候变化背景下天津地区采暖期变化特征,发现天津地区采暖期平均气温在52年间呈现明显的上升趋势,根据平均气温变化,将天津地区冬季采暖期以1985年和2012年为界分为偏冷期、过渡期和偏暖期3个阶段。基于平均气温分析气候变暖背景下天津地区采暖期相关要素的响应特征,结果表明:天津地区供热启动日呈现延后趋势,供热停止日则呈现明显提前的趋势,受其影响,采暖期长度在52年间以4 d·(10 a)^(-1)的变化速率缩短。平均值从最初的130 d左右下降到100 d左右。分析采暖期累计度日值及供热强度与平均气温之间的关系发现,天津地区平均气温每升高1.0℃,采暖期下降约56℃·d。且随着平均气温的升高,供热强度表现为明显的减弱趋势,且与气温变化的阶段性响应特征显著。因此平均气温可以成为评估供热能耗的有效度量。探讨气候变化对供热启停标准的影响分析中发现,相较于原来的5℃标准,8℃更符合天津地区目前的采暖期特征,从而为政府在采暖期的决策变化提供一定的气象依据。

Based on the daily mean temperature data from 1971 to 2023 and annual heating data from 2001 to 2021,the variation characteristics of heating season in Tianjin area are analyzed,and it is found that the temperature in Tianjin area shows an obvious upward trend in the past 52 years.According to the average temperature of 52 years,the heating season is divided into cold period,transition period and warm period by 1985 and 2012.Based on this,the changing characteristics of heating season under the background of climate warming is analyzed.The results show that the temperature change made the heating start date later and the end date earlier obviously,influenced by this,heating period days decreased by the rate of 4d/10a in the last 52 years.The average heating season day is reduced from 130 d to 100 d.The relationship between heating intensity,heating degree day and average temperature were analyzed,It shows that for 1℃increase in the average temperature,the heating degree decreased about 56℃·d.And with the increasing of mean temperature,heating intensity is matched well with the character of temperature phrase,which means the heating energy consumption can be reasonably analyzed by mean temperature.By analyzing the heating standard in Tianjin area found that compared with the original 5℃standard,8℃is more reasonable with the current heating season characteristics,which can be provided as a certain meteorological basis for government decision-making.