泥石流地质灾害危险性评价研究

Study on risk assessment of debris flow geological disaster

为了明确泥石流地质高风险区域并进行有效防治,研究采用灰色关联分析法,通过对地形坡度、降雨量、松散物质储量、地质构造及人类活动等影响因子的量化分析,确定各因子的权重并建立评价模型,并对德昌县泥石流地质灾害的危险性进行评价。结果表明,泥石流危险性得分为0.8056,属于高危险区,尤其在暴雨季节泥石流发生频率较高,威胁到农田、村庄及基础设施的安全。基于评价结果,提出了修建排导渠、拦砂坝及滑坡监测系统等防治措施,以减少泥石流的危害,为泥石流防灾减灾提供了科学依据。

In order to clarify the geological high-risk area of debris flow and carry out effective prevention and control,this paper uses the grey relational analysis method to determine the weight of each factor and establish the evaluation model through the quantitative analysis of the influencing factors such as terrain slope,rainfall,loose material reserves,geological structure and human activities.The risk of debris flow geological disasters in Dechang county is evaluated.The results show that the risk score of debris flow is 0.8056,which belongs to the high-risk area.Especially in the rainstorm season,the frequency of debris flow is high,which threatens the safety of farmland,village and infrastructure.Based on the evaluation results,the prevention and control measures such as the construction of drainage channel,sand dam and landslide monitoring system are put forward to reduce the harm of debris flow and provide scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation of debris flow.