气候变化情景下滇重楼在中国的适生性分析

Ecological Suitability of Paris polyphylla var.yunnanensis in China under the Situation of Climate Change

气候变化影响着物种的生态适宜性分布,预测物种潜在适生区对生物多样性的保护具有重要意义。该研究以滇重楼为研究对象,基于MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件,结合中国境内128条滇重楼有效分布点记录和32个生态因子进行模拟预测,筛选影响其生态适宜性分布的主导生态因子,并预测在末次盛冰期、全新世中期、当前和未来时期(2050s、2070s)3种不同温室气体排放情景(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5)下潜在适生区分布及质心迁移趋势。结果表明,MaxEnt模型预测结果精度极高,曲线下面积值(AUC,area under curve)在各时期的均值为0.951。影响滇重楼生态适宜性分布的主导生态因子为年均降水量、温度季节性变化系数、最暖季度平均降水量和海拔。自末次盛冰期以来滇重楼潜在适生区显著变化区域主要在高适生区,尤其在未来温室气体高排放情景下缩减区域较大,缩减面积最大达到16.86×10^(4) km^(2),缩减区域主要集中在四川东北部地区,同时,质心分析显示在气候变化情景下滇重楼高适生区质心呈高纬度高海拔迁移的趋势。该研究表明全球气候的变暖导致滇重楼高适宜区生境缩减,为滇重楼引种栽培和野生资源合理应用提供理论基础。

The impact of climate change on the ecological suitability of species is a crucial concern for biodiversity conservation.This study employed a combination of 128 reliable distribution records of Paris polyphylla var.yunnanensis in China and 32 bioclimatic variables utilizing the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software,in order to investigate the primary ecological factors that influence the distribution of ecological suitability for this species.Furthermore,we have made projections regarding the spatial distribution pattern of potential suitable areas and the trajectory of centroid displacement during the last glacial maximum,the middle holocene,the present,and future periods(2050s,2070s)under three distinct greenhouse gas emission scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5).The findings indicate that the MaxEnt model exhibited a remarkable level of precision in its predictions,as evidenced by a mean AUC value of 0.951 across all time periods.Notably,the geographical distribution of the studied entity was primarily influenced by several significant bioclimatic factors,namely precipitation annually,seasonality of temperature,warmest quarter precipitation,and elevation.Since the last glacial maximum,the areas of significant change in the potential habitat of Dianzhilou have been concentrated in the high habitability zone.Particularly,under the projected scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions in the future.In this scenario,the area of shrinkage reaches a maximum of 16.86×10^(4) km^(2),primarily concentrated in the northeastern region of Sichuan province.Simultaneously,the analysis of centroids revealed a tendency for the distribution of P.polyphylla var.yunnanensis to shift towards latitudes and altitudes of greater magnitude in response to climate change scenarios.These findings suggested that global warming contributed to the contraction of areas highly conducive for P.polyphylla var.yunnanensis.Consequently,the outcomes of this study furnish a theoretical framework for the judicious utilization of wild resources pertaining to P.polyphylla var.yunnanensis.