中国对外直接投资与“一带一路”全球价值链质量

China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment and the Global Value Chain Quality in the Belt and Road Countries

高质量共建“一带一路”背景下,中国对“一带一路”国家直接投资的东道国全球价值链升级效应需向质量效应拓展,然而缺少相关理论分析与实证检验。基于2007-2019年亚洲开发银行编制的世界投入产出表,从效率和稳定性两个方面构建指标并测算“一带一路”国家层面全球价值链质量数据,在此基础上实证分析中国对“一带一路”直接投资的东道国全球价值链质量效应。研究发现:中国对“一带一路”直接投资显著提升了东道国参与全球价值链质量,主要通过提高“一带一路”东道国中间品生产效率、中间品供应稳定性及中国与“一带一路”东道国间生产关联实现;异质性分析发现,中国OFDI的东道国全球价值链质量提升效应在“一带一路”发展中国家、与中国政治互信程度高、与中国拥有共同语言及海上丝绸之路等国家体现得更明显,同时“一带一路”倡议强化了中国对外直接投资的这种提升效应;拓展分析发现,中国对“一带一路”国家直接投资显著提升了东道国参与全球价值链效率和全球价值链稳定性。

Under the background of high-quality joint construction of the Belt and Road(B&R),the host country value chain effect of China's outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)in the B&R countries needs to expand from the international division to the quality,but there is a lack of relevant theories and empirical analysis.To this end,this paper constructs quantitative indicators to measure the quality data of the B&R countries participating in global value chains,and uses the systematic GMM and intermediary effect model to empirically test the impact and the mechanism of China's OFDI in the B&R countries on the quality of the host country's participation in global value chains.The study found that China's OFDI in the B&R has significantly improved the quality of host countries'participation in global value chains,mainly by improving the production efficiency of the host country's intermediate products,the stability of the host country's supply of intermediate products,and the production linkage between China and the host country.This is more obvious in developing countries along the road,countries with a lower level of economic development than China,countries with a high degree of political mutual trust with China,countries with a common official language with China,and countries on the Maritime Silk Road.The B&R initiative has strengthened China's OFDI's global value chain quality improvement effect.In addition,China's OFDI in the B&R countries has significantly improved the efficiency of the host country's participation in the global value chain and the stability of the global value chain.China should expand the scale of OFDI along the B&R,improve the quality of coordinated development of countries in the region,and support the joint construction of the B&R for high quality development.