基于FLUS的成渝城市群三生空间演变及模拟预测

Evolution and simulation of production-living-ecological space in Chengdu-Chongqing Urban agglomeration based on FLUS

研究三生空间格局演变与驱动机制,设定不同模拟情景,有利于实现城市群国土空间区域协调可持续发展。以成渝城市群2000年、2010年及2020年的土地利用数据为基础,划分三生空间。应用FLUS模型,以2010年土地利用数据为基础,结合自然环境、社会经济和交通区位等驱动因子,仿真模拟2020年三生空间格局,Kappa系数为0.824,以此模型因子预测2030年三生空间分布格局,并设定三种单一情景与之对比。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年间,生产空间相对减少1375.95 km^(2),生活空间相对增长2087.48 km^(2),生态空间减少736.8 km^(2)。生产空间与生活空间的重心总体向东南方向移动,而生态空间与之相反,重心总体向西北方向移动。(2)与2020年实际情况相比,预测2030年生产空间相对增加了1749.57 km^(2),生活空间和生态空间分别减少了58.9 km^(2)、1685.37 km^(2),基于历史情景,符合未来成渝地区三生空间格局变化。(3)与单一空间优化情景相比,2030年三生空间综合预测更符合未来发展趋势,且与2020年三生空间实际利用变化对比,城镇与农村生活用地持续增长,城市化进程保持高质量发展。研究成果可为未来成渝城市群国土空间规划及未来的三生空间共生协调提供多方位、多角度的借鉴参考。

To study the evolution and driving mechanism of production-living-ecological spatial pattern and set up different simulation scenarios is conducive to realizing coordinated and sustainable regional development of urban agglomeration.Based on the land use data in 2000,2010 and 2020 of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration,production-living-ecological space was divided.According to land use data in 2010 and driving factors such as natural environment,social economy and traffic location,FLUS model was used to simulate the production-living-ecological spatial pattern in 2020.The Kappa coefficient was 0.824.Based on this model factor,the distribution pattern of production-living-ecological spatial pattern in 2030 is predicted and compared with three single scenarios.The results showed that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,production space decreased by 1375.95 km^(2),living space increased by 2087.48 km^(2),and ecological space decreased by 736.8 km^(2).The center of gravity of production space and living space moved to the southeast in general,while the center of gravity of ecological space moved to the northwest in general.(2)Compared with the actual situation in 2020,it is predicted that the production space will increase by 1749.57 km^(2) in 2030,while the living space and ecological space will decrease by 58.9 km^(2) and 1685.37 km^(2) respectively,which is in line with the rapid development trend of urban and rural living land in the future.(3)Compared with the single spatial optimization scenarios,the comprehensive prediction of production-living-ecological space in 2030 is more consistent with the future development trend,and compared with the actual utilization of production-living-ecological space in 2020,urban and rural living land continues to grow,and the urbanization process maintains high-quality development.The research results can provide multi-dimensional and multi-angle reference for the future territorial space planning of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration and the symbiotic coordination of production-living-ecological space in the future.