“三孩”政策下超大城市普惠性托位需求规模的预测性分析——以上海市为例

Predictive Analysis of the Demand for Generally Beneficial 0-3 Childcare Enrollment Scale in Megacity under the“Three Child”Policy:Taking Shanghai as an Example

普惠性托育服务体系建构是当前我国积极应对人口负增长与老龄化的国家战略,“幼有善育”也是促进国家与社会和谐稳定的重大民生工程。上海是我国超大城市治理的典型代表,其托育公共服务事业发展在全国具有重要引领与示范作用。以“七普”数据为基础数据,采用经典队列要素法,分年龄段对上海市2024-2050年普惠性托位需求规模做出预测性分析。结果显示:2024-2050年期间,各方案3岁以下普惠性托位需求规模发展趋势大体一致,2028-2033年期间出现第一次需求高峰,而后下降,2036-2038年触底回升,2048-2050年期间出现第二次需求高峰。中方案预测结果显示:2024-2050年上海市3岁以下普惠性托位需求规模将从2024年的4.70-5.01万增长至2031年的6.20-7.20万,而后在2032年开始下降,降至2037年的5.45-6.48万,此后回升,2049年增至7.69-9.12万。0岁、1岁、2岁各单岁年龄组普惠性托位呈现需求差异。建议加强出生人口规模动态监测,分年龄段考察托位需求以提高资源配置效率,充分挖掘幼儿园富余资源并重点发展2岁儿童普惠性托育服务。

The construction of a generally beneficial childcare service system is currently a national strategy in China to actively address negative popu-lation growth and aging.The concept of“Caring for Children with Good Education”is also a significant livelihood project for promoting harmonious and sta-ble national and social stability.Shanghai is a typical representative of the governance of China's Megacities,and its development of public childcare serv-ices plays a significant leading and demonstration role nationwide.Based on the data from the China Seventh Population Census,using the classic cohort-component method,a predictive analysis was conducted on the demand for generally beneficial childcare enrollment scale in Shanghai from 2024 to 2050.The results indicate that during the period from 2024 to 2050,the development trend of inclusive childcare demand for children under 3 years old across all scenarios is largely consistent.The first demand peak appears between 2028 and 2033,followed by a decline,reaching a trough between 2036 and 2038 before gradually rising again.A second demand peak appears between 2048 and 2050.The prediction results for the medium scenario indicate that from 2024 to 2050,the scale of generally beneficial childcare demand scale for children under 3 years old in Shanghai will increase from 47,000 to 50,100 in 2024 to 62,000 to 72,000 in 2031,then decline from 2032 to 2037 to 54,500 to 64,800,and then rise again from 2049 to 76,900 to 91,200.There are differences in the demand for generally beneficial childcare for each single-year age group,including 0-year-old,1-year-old,and 2-year-old.Suggestions include strengthening dynamic monitoring of birth population size,examining childcare demand by age groups to improve resource allocation ef-ficiency,and fully tapping into surplus resources in kindergartens and focusing on the development of generally beneficial childcare services for 2-year-old.