中国排污权有偿使用和交易:指数构建与测度分析

Construction and Empirical Study of China’s Emission Trading Index

排污权交易作为我国资源环境领域的一项机制创新,对于优化资源环境要素配置具有重要作用。深入研究我国排污权交易试点工作发展态势,对政策完善、制度改革深化有重要意义。目前,相关研究集中于定性分析制度成效或定量分析市场趋势,缺少系统化、指标化、可定量的综合评价方法,且其研究维度和内容与排污权交易工作的最新部署存在较大差距。本文引入综合评价指数方法,结合全国生态环境保护大会等重要会议、文件精神,采用层次分析法构建了政策制定、出让成效、转让成效和方式创新4个维度的排污权交易指数体系;结合交易数据,确定计算方法,完成排污权交易指数的构建,并通过实证分析计算了2016-2022年全国排污权交易指数。结果表明:该指数在这6年间呈“升—降—升”趋势,并存在一定周期性。其中,政策制定和转让成效显著提升,出让成效和方式创新则需进一步加强。此外,本文还验证了该指数在省级排污权交易成效研究中的应用价值。

Emission trading,as a pivotal institutional innovation within China’s resource and environmental sectors,plays a crucial role in optimizing the allocation of resources and environmental factors.In-depth research on the development trend of emission trading is of great significance for improving relevant policies and deepening the emission trading system.Currently,the relevant research focuses on qualitative analysis of the institutional or quantitative analysis of market trends,and there is a lack of systematic,index-based,and quantifiable evaluation methods.Additionally,the dimensions and content of its research show a considerable gap compared to the latest national arrangements for the emission trading.In this study,the comprehensive evaluation index method is introduced into the research of emission trading.Combined with content of relevant policy documents and conference,the analytic hierarchy process is used to construct the emission trading index system of four dimensions:the policy formulation,the effectiveness of the government’s offer,the effectiveness of business transfers and the effectiveness of modality innovation.Then,the calculation method was determined with reference to the data characteristics,and the national emissions trading index was empirically analyzed for the period 2016-2022.The result shows that the index has a trend of‘rise-decline-rise’in the past six years,and there is a certain periodicity.Among them,the policy formulation and the effectiveness of the government’s offer have shown significant improvements,while the effectiveness of business transfers and the effectiveness of modality innovation require further enhancement.The research also confirms the index’s applicability in assessing the current state of provincial-level pollution rights trading,providing a robust analytical tool for policy analysis and environmental governance.