矿产资源评估中不确定性量化方法的研究

Research on Uncertainty Quantification Methods in Mineral Resource Assessment

在矿产资源勘查中,矿床类型呈现多样性,其成因具有复杂性,控矿因素的隐蔽性和找矿信息的多解性,导致成矿预测结果体现了很大不确定性。并且,每个勘查人员对其预测也存在差异。矿产资源评估是多个部分组成的复杂性、系统性的工程,每个部分都会带来不确定性,这种不确定具有传播积累的特点,最终导致整个技术评估的不确定性,造成矿山经济效益出现不确定性。当前,地质找矿难度持续增大,矿业经济风险越来越高,对矿床资源评估中的不确定性,需要对其形成正确认识,并且应用具有研究成效的不确定评估方法,以此提升矿产资源评估质量和效率。

In mineral resource exploration,the types of mineral deposits present diversity,and their genesis is complex.T he concealment of controlling factors and the ambiguity of prospecting information result in significant uncertainty in mineralization prediction results.Moreover,there are differences in the predictions made by each surveyor.Mineral resource assessment is a complex and systematic project composed of multiple parts,each of which brings uncertainty.T his uncertainty has the characteristic of spreading and accumulating,ultimately leading to uncertainty in the entire technical assessment and causing uncertainty in the economic benefits of mines.At present,the difficulty of geological exploration continues to increase,and the economic risks of mining are becoming higher.It is necessary to have a correct understanding of the uncertainty in mineral resource assessment and apply effective uncertainty assessment methods to improve the quality and efficiency of mineral resource assessment.