限购政策与城市房价溢出效应——基于70个大中城市准自然实验的研究

Housing Purchase Restrictions and Price Spillover Effects:A Study Based on a Quasi-Natural Experiment in 70 Large and Medium-Sized Cities

基于2015年1月至2022年3月全国70个大中城市的房价数据,本文考察了第二轮限购对城市房价溢出效应的影响。研究结果表明,限购政策有助于促进城际间的房价溢出效应。异质性分析显示,沿海地区、大规模城市出台的限购政策所引致的房价溢出效应高于内陆地区、小规模城市,而有社保及个税缴纳证明要求以及针对全域范围内的限购政策更能引发城市房价外溢。拓展性分析表明,限购政策能够通过降低房地产市场关注度和房产交易量影响城市间的房价溢出效应。本研究对优化地方政府的房市调控政策具有一定的借鉴意义。

Based on housing price data from 70 large and medium-sized cities in China from January 2015 to March 2022,this paper examines the impact of the second round of purchase restrictions on the spillover effects of urban housing prices.The results indicate that purchase restriction policies can promote intercity housing price spillover effects.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the housing price spillover effects induced by purchase restrictions in coastal areas and large-scale cities are higher than those in inland areas and small-scale cities,while requirements such as social security and individual income tax payment certificates,as well as purchase restrictions targeting the entire jurisdiction,are more likely to trigger housing price spillovers.The extended analysis suggests that purchase restriction policies can influence intercity housing price spillover effects by reducing market attention and transaction volumes in the real estate market.This study provides some reference value for optimizing local government's housing market regulation policies.