群体遗传学AI模型在我国弯曲杆菌感染散发病例归因中的初探与应用

Preliminary investigation and application of population genetics asymmetric island model in the attribution of sporadic cases of Campylobacter infection in China

目的探索群体遗传学模型在食源性疾病归因分析中的应用,定量识别导致我国弯曲杆菌感染散发病例的主要宿主来源。方法利用PubMLST公共数据库获得我国弯曲杆菌MLST数据,采用群体遗传学AI模型(AIM)对弯曲杆菌病例进行归因分析。结果弯曲杆菌感染散发病例归因于鸡的贡献比例最高,为50.49%,其次为鸭鹅、牛和猪,分别为22.56%、18.36%和4.52%,归因于环境和野生鸟类的贡献比例较低,分别为0.78%和0.66%。结论本研究采用AIM方法,实现了结合微生物分子分型数据和统计学建模的归因方法在我国食源性疾病中的实践应用,定量获得了不同来源对我国弯曲杆菌感染散发病例的贡献,并为下阶段归因工作提供了方向和思路。

Objective The application of population genetics model was explored to determine the main sources leading to sporadic cases of human Campylobacter infection.Methods MLST data from PubMLST public database was analyzed to assign Campylobacter sporadic cases to various sources by using the population genetics asymmetric island model(AIM).Results As a result of sporadic cases of Campylobacter infection,chickens(50.49%)accounted for the highest percentage,followed by ducks and geese,cattle,pigs(22.56%,18.36%and 4.52%,respectively),whereas the environment and wild birds accounted for a lower percentage(0.78%and 0.66%,respectively).Conclusion Based on microbial molecular typing data and statistical modeling,this study quantitatively assessed the contribution of different sources to sporadic cases of Campylobacter infections in China,using the AIM for source attribution practice.It provided directions and ideas for the next stage of source attribution for foodborne diseases.