基于边际减排成本的集装箱船碳中和路径和碳价影响分析

Analysis of carbon neutral pathway and carbon price of container ships based on marginal abatement cost

为研究集装箱单船碳中和路径,以及分析碳价对碳中和路径的影响,文章以一艘拟建的12000 TEU集装箱船为研究对象,采用边际减排成本理论评估方法,基于三型方案开展技术措施、营运措施和替代燃料组合的单船碳中和路径研究,分析边际减排成本与碳价之间的关系。结果表明:技术措施与营运措施的组合可实现约28.62%的减排;大多数技术措施和营运措施具有成本效益;随着碳价升高到有限值,甲醇双燃料和氨双燃料两种船型的后期额外成本也逐渐具有经济性;单靠碳税难以实现2050年碳中和;氨双燃料船具备和甲醇双燃料船商业竞争的潜力。

In order to study the carbon neutral path of a container single ship,as well as to analyze the influence of carbon price on the carbon neutral path,this paper takes a proposed 12000 TEU container ship as the research object,adopts the theoretical assessment method of marginal abatement cost,and carries out the research on the carbon neutral path of a single ship with a combination of technological measures,operational measures and alternative fuels based on a three-type scheme,and analyzes the relationship between marginal abatement cost and carbon price.The results show that:the combination of technical measures and operational measures can achieve about 28.62%emission reduction;most technical and operational measures are cost-effective;with the carbon price increasing to a given value,the later additional costs of methanol and ammonia dual fueled ships is gradually becoming economical;carbon taxes alone cannot achieve carbon neutrality by 2050;ammonia dual fueled ships have the potential to compete commercially with methanol dual fueled ships.