滇中高原山地城市群土地利用及生境质量的时空演变与多情景模拟

Spatial and temporal evolution and multi-scenario modeling of land use and habitat quality in highland mountainous urban agglomeration of central Yunnan,Southwest China

高原山地城市群发展与生态环境保护矛盾明显,生境质量与城镇化土地利用变化密切相关。本研究以滇中城市群为例,基于2000、2010、2020年土地利用数据,分析研究区土地利用及生境质量的时空演变,并运用PLUS模型和InVEST模型,预测自然发展、城镇发展、生态保护3种情景的研究区2030年土地利用及生境质量状况。结果表明:2000-2020年,研究区人造地表面积显著上升,主要分布在极低、中地形梯度区域,大部分由坡度较缓的坝区耕地转入;生境质量显著下降,尤其在2010-2020年下降更明显,极高生境质量面积大幅减少,极低生境质量和低生境质量面积大幅增加;在3种情景中,2030年生态保护情景下的极低生境质量面积最小、极高生境质量面积最大、恶化区面积最少,更符合滇中城市群经济社会的高质量发展。

There are obvious contradictions between the development of plateau mountain urban agglomerations and the protection of ecological environment,with the quality of habitat being closely related to land use changes during urbanization.Based on the land use data of central Yunnan urban agglomeration in 2000,2010,and 2020,we analyzed the spatio-temporal variations of land use and habitat quality,and used PLUS model and InVEST model to predict the status of land use and habitat quality in 2030 under three scenarios:natural development,urban development,and ecological protection.The results showed that the artificial surface area of the study area increased significantly from 2000 to 2020,mainly distributed in the areas with very low and medium topographic gradients,most of which were transformed from the cultivated land in the dam area with slow slope.Habitat quality decreased significantly,especially from 2010 to 2020.The area with extremely high habitat quality decreased significantly,while the area with very low habitat quality and low habitat quality increased significantly.In the three scenarios,under the ecological protection scenario,the area of extremely low habitat quality would be the smallest,the area of extremely high habitat quality would be the largest,and the area of deterioration would be the least in 2030,which was more in line with the high-quality economic and social development of the central Yunnan urban agglomeration.