出口冲击、地方政府逆周期调控与举债行为

Export Shocks,Counter-cyclical Adjustment and Debt Issuance Behavior of Local Governments

财政分权理论认为财政政策稳定宏观经济的职能应该由中央政府负责,但在中国应对外部冲击的逆周期财政调控中地方政府发挥着重要作用。本文用全球需求变化作为外生冲击构造偏移-份额工具变量,研究地方政府在面临负面出口冲击时如何通过债务扩张进行逆周期财政调节。研究发现,在新预算法实行前,地方政府面对本地出口增长放缓显著增加了融资平台债务举借,这带动了基建投资增加,缓解了经济增长受到的负面影响,而代价则是金融风险的积累。在新预算法实行后,由于地方政府举债行为受到严格约束,地方政府显性债务没有相应增加。这一变化导致经济增长受出口冲击的影响加深,但金融风险的上升也得到了抑制。本研究有助于理解外部冲击影响加深的环境下地方政府债务在中国经济调控中的作用,为健全财政治理体系和宏观经济治理体系提供了政策参考。

Using a sample of Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2007 to 2019,this paper examines how local governments make counter-cyclical adjustments through debt expansion in response to negative export shocks,employing changes in global demand as a source of exogeneous variation in the construction of a shift-share IV.Prior to the implementation of the new 2015 budget law,local government financing vehicles(LGFVs)significantly increased debt issuance in the face of a slowdown in local exports.This led to an increase in infrastructure investment and partly offset the negative impact of declining external demand,at the cost of increased financial risk.After the implementation of the new budget law,LGFV debt was subject to strict regulation,so it ceased to respond to shocks in external demand.Meanwhile,due to quota constraints,the local explicit debt did not respond either.The impact of export shocks on local economic growth became stronger,while financial risks were also partially eased.This study contributes to the understanding of the role of local government debt in macroeconomic regulation and provides policy references for a sound public debt management system and a macroeconomic governance system.