金融稳定沟通与银行系统性风险

Financial Stability Communication and Banking Systemic Risk

防范系统性金融风险对于维护经济金融安全稳定至关重要。本文从中国人民银行网站收集了2010至2020年所有的沟通文本,并基于A股上市商业银行数据,通过使用词典法构建金融稳定沟通指标,测度了中国人民银行金融稳定沟通文本所表达情绪的乐观程度,研究金融稳定沟通防范银行系统性风险的效果。本文发现正面的金融稳定沟通会导致银行系统性风险下降,作用机制为:正面沟通一方面可以引导和协调存款人预期,避免银行挤兑发生,有利于降低银行的流动性风险;另一方面可以稳定金融市场,提高借款企业偿债能力,有利于降低银行的信用风险。正面沟通还可以减弱银行间的风险传染。但是,正面沟通超出一定临界值后可能会提高系统性风险。本研究凸显了加强预期管理的重要性,对为防范系统性风险而进行的金融稳定沟通和预期管理政策制定具有参考价值。

Preventing systemic financial risks is crucial to maintaining financial and economic stability in China.This paper collects all the financial stability communication corpus on the official website of People’s Bank of China between 2010 and 2020,and uses a sentiment dictionary to measure the optimism in financial stability communications.Empirical results indicate that optimistic communications contribute to a decrease in banking systemic risk and the mechanisms are as follows.Optimistic communications guide and coordinate depositors’expectations,preventing bank runs and helping to reduce banks’liquidity risk.Besides,optimistic communications stabilize financial markets,benefiting the solvency of borrowing enterprises and thus helping to reduce banks’credit risk.Optimistic communications also reduce the risk of contagion between banks.However,overly optimistic communications can lead to an increase in systemic risk.This study highlights the importance of strengthening expectation management,which is useful for central banks to prevent systemic risk through expectation management policy tools represented by financial stability communications.