堆积层滑坡偏角比预警模型

Early warning model of deflection angle ratio for accumulation landslides

建立有效的滑坡预警模型对于防范滑坡灾害具有重要意义。为建立堆积层滑坡偏角比预警模型,开展堆积层滑坡变形失稳全过程试验,基于试验监测结果,提出具有方向性和统一性的位移动力学参数——偏角比、以及相应的偏角比预警模型,并用3个实际滑坡的监测数据验证该预警模型。结果表明:堆积层滑坡演化过程中,偏角比总体上呈现出先波动后平稳的规律,F范数为0.2可较好地作为偏角比波动段和平稳段的分界值。偏角比的平稳特征可以指示堆积层滑坡所处的变形阶段,基于此,提出F范数单点预警判据和多点预警判据。

The establishment of an effective landslide early warning model is of great significance for the prevention of landslide disasters.This study aims to establish the early warning model of deflection angle ratio for accumulation landslides.First,the tests that reproduce the deformation-destabilization process of accumulation landslides are carried out.Based on the test monitoring results,a displacement dynamics parameter,the deflection angle ratio,which has directionality and unity,is proposed.Moreover,the corresponding landslide early warning model of deflection angle ratio is presented.Finally,monitoring data from three real landslides are utilized to validate this warning model.The results show that the deflection angle ratio presents a general pattern of first fluctuation and subsequent smoothness during the evolution process of accumulation landslides.The Frobenius norm of 0.2 can be used as the dividing value between the fluctuating and smooth segments of the deflection angle ratio.The smooth characteristic of the deflection angle ratio can indicate the deformation stage of accumulation landslides.Based on this,the single-point warning criterion and the multi-point warning criterion of the Frobenius norm are proposed.When applying the early warning model of deflection angle ratio to real landslides,it is recommended that this warning model is used in conjunction with the warning model that is based on the magnitude of total unidirectional displacement,in order to arrive at a more comprehensive early warning judgment.