数字普惠金融对乡村振兴的影响及门槛特征

The Influence and Threshold Characteristics of Digital Inclusive Finance on Rural Revitalization

数字普惠金融正在蓬勃发展,并为乡村振兴进程解决“贷款难、贷款贵”等难题提供了全新的线索和思路。基于全国31省(自治区、直辖市,不含港澳台)2011—2022年面板数据,从产业兴旺、生态宜居等不同维度选取18个评价指标构建了乡村振兴发展水平评价指标体系,采用TOPSIS熵权法综合测算全国31省域乡村振兴发展水平。在此基础上,探讨数字普惠金融对乡村振兴的理论逻辑,并采用双向固定效应模型与门槛模型实证验证数字普惠金融对乡村振兴影响效果与门槛效应。得出主要结论为:第一,数字普惠金融在推动乡村振兴发展水平上具有明显优势。经过深入的内生性分析和稳健性检验,包括对数字普惠金融滞后一期、变化样本以及分维度的全方位考察,这一结论依然稳健可靠。第二,数字普惠金融对乡村振兴的影响存在显著的区域异质性。西部地区的数字普惠金融对乡村振兴的效果明显优于东部和中部。并且数字普惠金融的不同维度在不同地区对乡村振兴也存在显著的区域异质性。第三,数字普惠金融对乡村振兴在数字普惠金融和经济发展水平门槛变量下,均展现出显著的门槛效应。在不同区域中,数字普惠金融对乡村振兴的影响也表现出各不相同的门槛效应。其中,东部和中部地区的门槛效应较为明显。基于上述结论,分别从积极发展数字普惠金融、制定针对性的政策措施、充分考虑门槛效应等视角提出对策与建议。

Digital inclusive finance is booming and has solved the difficulties of"difficult and expensive loans"in the process of rural revitalization,providing new clues and ideas.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2022,18 evaluation indicators were selected from different dimensions such as industrial prosperity and ecological livability to construct an evaluation system for the development level of rural revitalization.The TOPSIS entropy weight method was used to comprehensively measure the development level of rural revitalization in 31 provinces nationwide.On this basis,the theoretical logic of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization was discussed,and the bidirectional fixed effect model and threshold model were used to empirically verify the effect and threshold effect of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization.The main conclusions are as follows:First,digital inclusive finance has obvious advantages in promoting the development level of rural revitalization.After in-depth endogenous analysis and robustness test,including comprehensive investigation of digital inclusive finance lagging behind,changing samples,and sub-dimensions,this conclusion is still robust and reliable.Second,there is significant regional heterogeneity in the impact of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization.The effect of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization in the western region is significantly better than that in the eastern and central regions.Moreover,different dimensions of digital inclusive finance also have significant regional heterogeneity in different regions on rural revitalization.Third,digital inclusive finance shows a significant threshold effect under the threshold variables of digital inclusive finance and economic development level in rural revitalization.In different regions,the impact of digital inclusive finance on rural revitalization also shows different threshold effects.Among them,the threshold effect in the eastern and central regions is more obvious.Based on the above conclusions,countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the perspectives of actively developing digital inclusive finance,formulating targeted policies and measures,and fully considering the threshold effect.