安徽省县域人口出生率空间格局演变及影响机理

The Evolution of Spatial Pattern of Population Birth Rate in Counties of Anhui Province and the Mechanism of Influence

人口出生率是衡量人口再生产状况的重要指标,对区域可持续发展具有深刻影响。基于第五、六、七次人口普查数据,综合应用空间自相关、地理探测器等方法,探讨了安徽省2000年至2020年县域人口出生率的空间格局演变及影响因素,并基于“生育意愿—生育行为—生育水平”的视角分析其影响机理。结果表明:(1)人口出生率空间非均衡性明显,其空间格局经历了“东南向西北梯度递增—北高南低—‘U’型低值区与倒‘C’型高值区南北相邻分布”的变化过程。皖北、皖西多数区县出生率经历了较为迅速的先增后减的过程,而皖中和皖南多数区县出生率持续下降。(2)人口出生率存在着显著的空间正相关性,集聚态势先增强后减弱,局部空间关联类型始终以高-高集聚和低-低集聚为主。(3)人口出生率的重心总体位于几何中心的西北方向,呈现先向西北再向东南方向移动的趋势。(4)因子探测结果显示地域文化以及城镇化水平为主要影响因素,城镇居民人均可支配收入、15~49岁育龄妇女比重、老年抚养比、商品房平均销售价格驱动力次之;交互探测结果表明安徽省县域人口出生率的空间分布格局受到经济、社会、人口以及文化多种因素的综合影响,其中,双因素交互作用的驱动力均比单因素独立作用时更强。研究结论可为地方政府差异化生育对策的制定提供参考。

The birth rate is an important indicator for measuring the status of population reproduction and has a profound impact on regional sustainable development.Based on the data from the fifth,sixth,and seventh nation-al censuses,this study comprehensively applied methods such as spatial autocorrelation and geodetector to ex-plore the spatial pattern evolution and influencing factors of county-level birth rates in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2020.Furthermore,the influencing mechanism was analyzed from the perspective of"fertility intention-fertility behavior-fertility level".The results show that:(1)There is significant spatial heterogeneity in the birth rate,and the spatial pattern has gone through a change process of"southeast to northwest gradient increment-north high south low-'U'type low value area and inverted'C'type high value area adjacent to the north-south distribution".Most of the districts and counties in northern and western Anhui experienced a relatively rapid increase and then decrease in birth rate,while most of the districts and counties in central and southern Anhui experienced a continu-ous decline in birth rate.(2)There is a significant positive spatial correlation among birth rates,and the agglomera-tion trend first strengthens and then weakens.Local spatial correlation types are mainly high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration.(3)The center of gravity of the birth rate is generally located in the northwest direc-tion of the geometric center,showing a tendency to move from northwest to southeast.(4)The factor detection re-sults show that regional culture and urbanization level are the main influencing factors,followed by per capita dis-posable income of urban residents,proportion of women of childbearing age(15-49 years old),elderly support ra-tio,and average sales price of commercial housing.The interactive detection results indicate that the spatial distri-bution pattern of the birth rate in Anhui Province is affected by multiple factors such as economy,society,popula-tion,and culture,and the driving force of the interaction between two factors is stronger than that of independent single factors.The research conclusions will provide reference for the formulation of differentiated fertility poli-cies by local governments.