2002—2021年上海市青浦区户籍居民期望寿命与去死因期望寿命的分析

Analysis of life expectancy and cause-eliminated life expectancy of the registered residents in Qingpu District,Shanghai,2002‒2021

【目的】分析2002—2021年上海市青浦区户籍居民期望寿命与去死因期望寿命变化趋势,确定当地导致期望寿命损失的主要疾病,为加强疾病预防干预以及优化卫生资源配置提供理论依据。【方法】采用《疾病和有关健康问题的国际统计分类(第10版)》(ICD-10)死因编码分类,用简略寿命表法与去死因期望寿命表法计算期望寿命和去死因期望寿命,并分析期望寿命指标的变化趋势,构建ARIMA模型,对2022—2029年青浦区户籍居民期望寿命进行趋势预测。【结果】2002—2021年青浦区户籍居民期望寿命呈增长趋势,平均每年增长0.32岁(AAPC=0.39%,P<0.001)。2002—2021年7类主要死因的去死因期望寿命中循环系统疾病呈上升趋势(AAPC=0.53%,P<0.001),且死因顺位由2002年的第3位上升至2021年的第1位,所致寿命损失率由3.79%上升至7.97%。下降幅度最大的呼吸系统疾病由2002年的第1位下降至2021年的第4位,寿命损失率由6.83%下降至0.99%。【结论】青浦区户籍居民期望寿命已居国内领先水平。未来应关注如何有效提高男性居民的期望寿命,加强心脑血管疾病、糖尿病以及恶性肿瘤等慢性疾病的综合防治,完善居民健康促进政策,实现地区期望寿命长期稳步提升的目标。

[Objective]To analyze the trends in life expectancy and cause-eliminated life expectancy of the registered residents in Qingpu District,Shanghai from 2002 to 2021,and to identify the major diseases causing life expectancy loss in the area,so as to provide a theoretical basis for strengthening disease prevention and interventions and optimizing health resources allocation.[Methods]Using the International Classification of Diseases(ICD)-10 classification of death causes,average life expectancy and cause-eliminated life expectancy were calculated with the abbreviated life table and the cause-eliminated life expectancy table.A trend forecast of life expectancy from 2022 to 2029 was made.[Results]From 2002 to 2021,the life expectancy of Qingpu District residents showed an increasing trend,with an average annual growth of 0.32 years(AAPC=0.39%,P<0.001).Among the seven major causes of death,the cause-eliminated expected life expectancy for circulatory system diseases showed the most significant upward trend(AAPC=0.53%,P<0.001),rising from the third leading cause of death in 2002 to the first in 2021.The life expectancy loss rate due to circulatory system diseases increased from 3.79%to 7.97%.Respiratory system diseases showed the largest decline,decreasing from the first leading cause of death in 2002 to the fourth in 2021,with the life expectancy loss rate decreasing from 6.83%to 0.99%.[Conclusion]Life expectancy of the registered residents in Qingpu District has reached a leading level in China.Future efforts should focus on effectively increasing the life expectancy of male residents,strengthening the comprehensive prevention and treatment of chronic diseases such as cerebrovascular diseases,diabetes,and malignant tumors,and improving health promotion policies for residents to achieve a steady long-term increase in regional life expectancy.