数字新质生产力与农民增收:理论分析与经验证据

Digital New Quality Productivity and Increasing Farmers Income:Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence

发展新质生产力是推动高质量发展的内在要求和重要着力点,提升数字新质生产力对农民持续增收有着重要影响。基于2012—2022年我国30个省份数据,构建固定效应模型和空间杜宾模型,从理论和实证的角度探究数字新质生产力对农民增收的影响、作用机制和空间溢出效应。研究发现数字新质生产力显著促进农民收入水平提升,经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立;作用机制检验结果表明,数字新质生产力能通过农民创业活跃度、城镇化水平、非农就业规模三种渠道显著增加农民收入水平;异质性分析显示,数字新质生产力对经济欠发达地区、低物质资本和低人力资本的农民收入水平具有较强的正向促进作用;进一步研究发现,数字新质生产力对农民增收的影响具有空间溢出效应。基于此,提出发展数字农业,推动数字要素赋能数字新质生产力形成;推进“数商兴农”,释放数字新质生产力的增收效应;制定动态差异化发展标准,发挥数字新质生产力空间溢出效应。

Promoting new quality productivity is an inherent requirement and important focus for high-quality development,and enhancingthe productivity has an important impact on thesustainable increase of farmers income.Based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022,this paper constructs a fixed effect model and a Spatial Dubin model to explore the impact,mechanism and spatial spillover effect of digital new quality productivity on farmers income increase from theoretical and empirical perspectives.It is found that the digital new quality productivity can significantly promote the improvement of farmers income level,and it still holds after a series of robustness tests.The results of the mechanism test show that digital new quality productivity can realize the great increase through three channels:farmers entrepreneurial activity,urbanization level and non-agricultural employment.Heterogeneity analysis shows that digital new quality productivity has a positive effect on farmers income level in economically underdeveloped areas,with low material capital and low human capital.Further research shows that the effect of digital new quality productivity on farmers income increase has spatial spillover effect.Based on this,it is proposed to develop digital agriculture and promote the formation of digital new quality productivity enabled by digital elements.In addition,promote“digital business to develop agriculture”,and release the income increasing effect of digital new quality productivity;What s more,formulate dynamic and differentiated development standards,and leverage the spatial spillover effect of digital new quality productivity.