数字经济与绿色发展耦合协调的时空格局及分异机理

Spatial-temporal Pattern and Differentiation Mechanism of the Coupling Coordination between Digital Economy and Green Development

数字经济与绿色发展协同共进是高质量发展的题中之义。在厘清耦合协调机理基础上,运用耦合协调度模型、Markov链和时空地理加权回归模型(GTWR)等方法探析中国数字经济与绿色发展耦合协调的时空格局特征及其分异机理。结果发现:第一,研究期内全国及各地区的耦合协调度均不断提升,但仅有北京、上海、江苏、浙江、广东、四川6省市进入良好协调阶段。第二,从空间格局看,耦合协调度整体上表现为“东—中—西”梯式递减,省域上则表现出“低值集聚、高值分散”空间分布,且呈现以河南为中心的“东北—西南”走向演进趋势。第三,从动态演变看,耦合协调度的变动具有“路径依赖”效应,且因“与邻为善”和“以邻为壑”并重的空间溢出效应形成了“高拉动低、低抑制高”俱乐部收敛现象。第四,机理分析表明,人力资本和城镇化对各地区耦合协调发展均具有显著的促进作用,产业结构对西部地区的促进作用逐渐增强,科技创新则对东中部地区的赋能作用更明显。

Synergizing the digital economy with green development is essential for high-quality development.On the basis of clarifying the coupling coordination mechanism,this paper uses the coupling coordination degree model,Markov Chain and Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression(GTWR)model to analyze the spatial-temporal pattern and differentiation mechanism of the coupling coordination between China s digital economy and green development.The results showed that,firstly,during the research period,the coupling coordination degree between digital economy and green development of the whole country and various regions continued to improve,but only six provinces and municipalities including Beijing,Shanghai,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Guangdong and Sichuan have entered the stage of good coordination.Secondly,from the spatial pattern,the overall coupling coordination degree shows a gradient decrease from“east-central-west”,and the provincial area shows a“concentration 3 of low value,dispersion of high value”distribution,and presents a“northeast-southwest”trend with Henan as the center.Thirdly,from the dynamic evolution,the change of coupling coordination has a“path-dependent”effect,and the Club Convergence phenomenon of“high pull low,low inhibit high”is formed by the Spatial Spillover Effect of“being kind to neighbors”and“being troublesome to neighbors”.And fourthly,the mechanism analysis shows that human capital and urbanization have had significant impacts on the coordinated development between digital economy and green development in all areas,and industrial structure plays a gradually increasing in promoting the Western Area,while scientific and technological innovation has a more obvious impact on the Eastern and Central Areas.