上市公司高管新闻对分析师盈余预测行为的影响分析——基于分析师盈余预测准确度与分歧度的视角

Analysis of the Impact of Executive News of Listed Companies on Analyst Earnings Forecasting Behavior-From the Perspective of Analyst Earnings Forecast Accuracy and Divergence

互联网的发展,使市场上的信息使用模式发生了变化,同时也改变了分析者所处的信息环境与外在的约束条件。本文以我国上市公司2011-2022年数据为样本,解释了上市公司高管新闻对分析师盈余预测行为的影响及内在机理,拓展了高管新闻的经济后果与分析师盈余预测行为影响因素的研究。研究发现,上市公司高管新闻对分析师关注度有显著正向影响,却对分析师盈余预测准确度、分歧度有显著反向影响;网络搜索指数削弱了高管新闻对分析师盈余预测行为的影响。在进一步分析中,发现高管新闻对分析师盈余预测行为的影响是通过影响企业信息披露质量这一途径实现的。为此,应制定相关政策,规范新闻行业的发展;健全分析师制度,推动分析师行业的发展;完善信息披露制度,构建立体式和全方位的监管处罚体系。

The development of the Internet has changed the mode of information use in the market,and also changed the information environment and external constraints of the analysts.Taking the data of Chinese listed companies from 2011 to 2022 as a sample,the paper examines the impact of executive news on analysts’earnings forecasts.The study found that the listed company executive news has a significant positive impact on analysts’attention,but it has a significant reverse impact on the accuracy and divergence of analyst earnings forecasting;the Internet search index has weakened the impact of executive news on analyst earnings forecasting behavior.In further analysis,it is found that the influence of executive news on analysts’earnings forecasting behavior is realized by affecting the quality of corporate information disclosure.To this end,relevant policies should be formulated to standardize the development of the news industry,improve the analyst system and promote the development of the analyst industry,improve the information disclosure system and build a three-dimensional and comprehensive supervision and punishment system.