黄河流域绿色发展效率与产业结构升级空间交互溢出效应

Spatial Interaction Spillover Effect of Green Development Efficiency and Industrial Structure Upgrading in the Yellow River Basin

为了给黄河流域绿色发展、产业结构升级和高质量发展提供参考,运用超效率SBM模型和核密度估计法对黄河流域2006—2020年70个地级市的绿色发展效率进行测算,并基于广义三阶段空间最小二乘法建立绿色发展效率、产业结构升级空间计量模型,研究产业结构升级与绿色发展效率的空间交互溢出效应,主要结论如下:1)黄河流域绿色发展效率在研究时段内整体上呈波动上升趋势,从空间上看在研究时段初区域差别较大、在研究时段末各区域趋于一致;2)从流域整体上看,绿色发展效率与产业结构升级存在互促效应,其中产业结构升级对绿色发展效率的促进效应更为明显,且二者之间存在空间交互溢出效应,即以地级市为样本的绿色发展效率受周边地区绿色发展效率和产业结构升级的正向影响,但产业结构升级受周边地区绿色发展效率的负向影响;3)分区域看,绿色发展效率与产业结构升级之间的关系存在区域异质性,上游地区二者互促但中下游地区二者互抑,二者对绿色发展效率的空间交互溢出效应在上、中、下游地区均表现为正向;4)绿色发展效率还受经济发展水平、城镇化水平、科技创新、人口规模、对外开放水平、环境规制强度、政府行为、城市交通基础水平等因素的影响。

In order to provide reference for green development,industrial structure upgrading and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin,the super-efficiency SBM model and kernel density estimation method were used to calculate the green development efficiency of 70 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2006 to 2020,and based on the generalized three-stage space least squares method was used to establish a spatial econometric model of green development efficiency and industrial structure upgrading,and studied the spatial interactive spillover effects of industrial structure upgrading and green development efficiency.The main conclusions are as follows:a)The green development efficiency of the Yellow River Basin shows an overall fluctuating upward trend during the study period.From a spatial per-spective,the regional differences are large at the beginning of the study period,and the regions tend to be consistent at the end of the study period.b)From the overall perspective of the basin,green development efficiency and industrial structure upgrading have mutually reinfor-cing effects.Among them,industrial structure upgrading has a more obvious promotion effect on green development efficiency,and there is a spatial interactive spillover effect between the two.That is,taking prefecture-level cities as the example,the green development efficiency of the sample is positively affected by the green development efficiency of surrounding areas and the upgrading of industrial structure,but the upgrading of industrial structure is negatively affected by the green development efficiency of surrounding areas.c)From a regional perspec-tive,there is regional heterogeneity in the relationship between green development efficiency and industrial structure upgrading.The two pro-mote each other in upstream regions but inhibit each other in middle and lower reaches.The spatial interactive spillover effects of the two on green development efficiency are in the upper,middle and lower reaches areas all show positive trends.d)Green development efficiency is also affected by factors such as the level of economic development,urbanization level,technological innovation,population size,level of o-pening to the outside world,intensity of environmental regulation,government behavior,and basic level of urban transportation.