南水北调中线受水区水资源利用效率及影响因素

Study on Water Resource Use Efficiency and Its Influencing Factors in the Water Service Area of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project

为提升南水北调中线工程受水区水资源利用效率,以工程沿线北京、天津2个直辖市和河南、河北18个省辖市共计20个地域单元为研究区域,基于2015—2021年面板数据,采用Super-SBM模型、GML模型及sys-GMM估计法对受水区水资源利用效率进行测度,对影响因素进行识别。结果表明:全区水资源静态利用效率总体偏低但呈波动上升态势,区域差异较大,呈京津板块>河南板块>河北板块格局,空间上呈现以京津冀、郑州2个都市圈为核心向外围逐渐递减的“核心-外围”结构;全区水资源动态利用效率整体呈波动上升趋势,主要源于技术进步,而技术效率作用有限;经济发展水平、水资源禀赋、科技水平、城镇化进程、人口密度与水资源利用效率显著正相关,水污染程度、产业结构、环境规制与水资源利用效率显著负相关。

In order to improve the water resources utilization efficiency of the water service area of Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion,a total of 20 regional units along the project including Beijing and Tianjin as well as 18 provincial cities in Henan and Hebei were taken as the research area.Based on panel data from 2015 to 2021,the Super-SBM model,GML model,and sys-GMM estimation meth-od were used to measure the water resources utilization efficiency of the engineering water receiving area,and the influencing factors were identified.The results indicate that the overall static utilization efficiency of water resources in the entire region is relatively low,but it shows a fluctuating upward trend,with significant regional differences,showing a pattern of Beijing-Tianjin plate>Henan plate>Hebei plate.The spatial distribution of the static utilization efficiency presents a“core-periphery”structure with the two metropolitan areas of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Zhengzhou as the core,which is gradually decreasing outward.The dynamic utilization efficiency of water resources shows a fluctu-ating upward trend as a whole,which is mainly due to technological progress,but the role of technological efficiency is limited.The factors of economic development level,water resources endowment,science and technology levels,urbanization process and population density are sig-nificantly positively correlated with the water resources utilization efficiency,but the factors of water pollution degree,industrial structure and environmental regulation are significantly negatively correlated with the water resources utilization efficiency.