基于LMDI和水足迹理论的西安市水资源压力驱动因素分析

Analysis of Water Pressure Driving Force of Water Resources in Xi’an Based on LMDI Method and Water Footprint Theory

为探究水资源压力来源及其驱动因素,利用西安市2013—2020年各类水资源统计数据研究其水足迹的变化趋势,并结合LMDI分解法来分析技术效应、人口效应、结构效应和经济效应对西安市水资源压力的影响。结果表明:1)西安市水足迹在2018年达到最大值,水足迹以内部水足迹为主,其占比为90.24%~95.52%;内部水足迹以农业用水为主,其占比为35.26%~41.82%。从空间结构来看,城六区人均水足迹小于西安市其他地区。2)西安市水足迹在2013—2020年处于水赤字状态,水资源处于超负荷开发利用状态。3)在西安市水足迹驱动因素中,技术效应表现为逆向驱动效果,且对水足迹影响最大;正向驱动因素中经济效应、人口效应对水足迹影响较大,结构效应对水足迹的影响较前两者小。

It is of great significance to clarify the reason of water resources pressure for alleviating the shortage of water resources and rational allocation of water resources.In order to explore the reason of water resources pressure and its driving factors,this paper used various water resources statistics of Xi’an from 2013 to 2020 to study the change trend of its water footprint,and combined with LMDI decomposition meth-od to analyze the influence of technological effect,population effect,structural effect and economic effect on the water resources pressure of Xi’an.The results show as follows:a)The water footprint of Xi’an reaches to the maximum in 2018,and the water footprint is dominated by the internal water footprint,accounting for about 90.24%-95.52%;the internal water footprint is dominated by agricultural water,accounting for 35.26%-41.82%.From the perspective of spatial structure,the per capita water footprint of the six urban districts is lower than that of other districts in Xi’an.b)From 2013 to 2020,the water footprint of Xi’an is in a state of water deficit,and the water resources are in a state of overloaded development and utilization.c)Among the driving factors of water footprint in Xi’an,the technical effect is the reverse driving effect,and has the greatest impact on the water footprint.Among the positive driving factors,the economic effect and the population effect have a greater impact on the water footprint,and the structural effect is smaller than that of the former two.