广西人口老龄化时空演变及类型划分

Spatial-temporal evolution of population aging and classification of types in Guangxi

基于第5、6、7次人口普查数据,以广西65岁及以上人口作为主要研究对象,综合运用静态指标(构建由老年人口数量、比例和密度组成的综合老龄化指数)和动态指标(老年和非老年人口数量变化),采用空间自相关、冷热点分析法分析2000—2020年广西人口老龄化时空演变特征,并对人口老龄化类型进行划分。研究表明:(1)广西人口老龄化程度不断加深,桂北地区老龄化程度最严重;(2)老龄化集聚效应迅速增强,但区域差异显著,集聚趋势具有明显指向性,呈现出“北高南低”的分布格局。(3)综合运用动静态指标将广西111个县域划分为5个老龄化类型:残留老化型、集聚老化型、自然老化型、稀释老化型和集聚稀释型。基于研究结论,对每个类型进行总结分析并提出相应的具有针对性的建议。

Based on the 5th,6th,and 7th population census data,taking Guangxi′s population aged 65 and above as the main re-search object,the static indicators(construction of a comprehensive aging index composed of the number,proportion,and density of the elderly population)and dynamic indicators(changes in the number of elderly and non-elderly populations)were comprehensively ap-plied to analyze the characteristics of the temporal and spatial evolution of the population aging in Guangxi from 2000 to 2020 by adop-ting spatial autocorrelation and cold hotspot analysis,as well as to classify the types of population aging.The study showed that:①The degree of population aging in Guangxi was deepening,and the degree of aging was most serious in the northern part of Gui.②The aging agglomeration effect was rapidly increasing,but there were significant regional differences,and the agglomeration trend had obvious di-rectionality,showing a distribution pattern of“high in the north and low in the south”.③This paper comprehensively used dynamic and static indicators to classify 111 counties in Guangxi into five types of aging:Residual aging,agglomerated aging,natural aging,diluted aging,and agglomerated dilution,and summarized and analyzed each type.On the above,this paper put forward corresponding targeted recommendations.