农业保险的化肥减量效应分析——基于信贷与信息双约束视角的再考察

The Reducing Effect of Agricultural Insurance on the Use of Chemical Fertilizer:A Re-examination from the Perspective of Dual Constraints of Credit and Information

本文利用江苏省开展小麦完全成本保险试点的契机,使用双重差分方法考察农业保险对小麦生产化肥投入的影响。同时,基于农村信贷市场不完备和农户保险认知不足的新视角,本文进一步探讨农业保险影响农户化肥投入的差异化表现。研究结果显示,完全成本保险试点的实施减少了小麦生产化肥投入量,其实质是农村信贷约束与信息约束导致的结果。进一步的分析表明,当农户面临信贷约束或信息约束时,农业保险减少了小麦生产化肥投入量;相反,当农户不存在此类约束时,农业保险则表现出增加化肥投入量的效应。据此,本文指出,在开展农业保险效应评估时需深入分析农村信贷市场与信息传递渠道的现实状况,这是准确评价农业保险效果的前提。

This study capitalizes on the 2021 pilot implementation of the wheat full-cost insurance policy in Jiangsu Province as a quasi-natural experiment.We examine the impact of agricultural insurance on fertilizer input in wheat production through a Difference-in-Differences model.Meanwhile,based on the new perspective of inadequate rural credit markets and insufficient farmers'knowledge of insurance,we further investigate the heterogeneous performance of agricultural insurance on farmers'fertilizer input.The results show that the implementation of the full-cost insurance policy contributes to a reduction in fertilizer input in wheat production,which essentially results from rural credit constraints and information constraints.Further analysis shows that agricultural insurance reduces the fertilizer input in wheat production when farmers face credit constraints or information constraints.Conversely,when there are no such constraints for farmers,agricultural insurance has the effect of increasing fertilizer input.Consequently,this paper emphasizes the need for a thorough analysis of the reality of the rural credit market and information transmission channels when assessing the effect of agricultural insurance,which is the prerequisite for accurately evaluating the impactofagricultural insurance.