现代民机航线运行安全态势风险算法模型研究

Research on the risk algorithm model of safety situation for modern civil aircraft route operation

本文结合影响航空公司安全运营和客户关注的因素,提出航线运行安全态势风险算法模型。首先,从事故症候严重/一般、不安全事件、故障千时率、使用困难报告等级、航班不正常情况、持续适航事件风险等级、商业运行放行条件指数、重要类级别以上的服务通告(SB,service bulletin)未贯彻风险8个方面,计算航空运输协会(ATA,Air Transport Association)各章节风险指数;然后,根据单架机风险指数组成的机队风险指数清单,获悉航司各架飞机的风险点;最后,在此基础上分析症结点,提供减缓风险的措施。验证表明,该算法模型可提升机队运营效率和经济性,从而保证飞机安全、通畅运营。

A risk algorithm model of route operation safety situation is proposed in this paper,by combining factors that affect airline safety operations and customer concerns.Firstly,the risk index of each chapter of the Air Transport Association(ATA)is calculated from eight aspects including severe/general accident symptoms,unsafe incidents,failure rate per thousand hours,reporting level of operational difficulty,abnormal flight conditions,risk level of continuous airworthiness incidents,index of commercial operation release conditions and the risk of failure to implement service bulletin(SB)above the important category level.Then,based on the fleet risk index list composed of individual aircraft risk index,the risk points of each aircraft of the airline are obtained.Finally,the symptom nodes are analyzed on this basis,and provide measures to mitigate risks.The verification shows that the proposed algorithm model can improve the efficiency and economy of fleet operation,thereby ensuring the safe and smooth operation of aircraft.