基于改进Critic权重法的冲击地压危险等级预测方法

Prediction of Risk Level of Rockburst Based on Improved Critic Weight Method

屯宝煤矿WⅡ02040501工作面受断层构造影响,回采期间大能量微震事件频发,为提高工作面采掘期间大能量微震事件的预警准确率,通过多元Logistic回归模型,从微震日能量/频次等监测指标中筛选出了微震日频次、频次变化量、日平均能量3个关键预警指标,基于Critic改进权重法建立了各预警指标与冲击地压危险等级的耦合公式,并在WⅡ02040501工作面进行了工程验证。研究结果表明:基于微震能量四分位数间距法划分的微震“大能量”事件临界值,可有效判识具有诱冲危险性的大能量微震事件;基于日频次、频次变化量、日平均能量3个预警指标确定的耦合公式,对大能量微震预警准确率达到了80%,可提高冲击地压防治措施的针对性和有效性。

The WI102040501 working face at Tunbao coal mine is susceptible to the impact of fault structures,resulting in frequent occurrences of large energy microseismic events during mining.To improve the accuracy of monitoring and early warning systems for microseismic events,three key indicators were selected from the microseismic energy/frequency parameters:daily frequency,frequency change,and daily average energy.A multivariate Logistic regression model was utilized,and the Critic improved weight method was employed to establish the coupling formula between each index and the risk level of rockburst.The findings were validated through subsequent engineering verification at the WI102040501 working face.Upon analysis,it has been discovered that the quartile spacing technique,utilizing microseismic energy,is the efficient means of identifying a critical value for"large energy"microseismic events.With this method,high-risk microseismic incidents with the potential to cause rockburst can be precisely identified.The coupling formula,encompassing the three aforementioned early warning indicators,boasts an 80%accuracy rate in predicting large energy microseismics.This greatly improves the efficacy of rockburst prevention and control measures.