热带气旋对南方水稻产量影响的实证检验——基于广东水稻种植户的调研数据分析

Impact of Occurrence of Tropical Cyclones on Rice Output in Southern China:A Study Based on Survey Data of Rice Farmers in Guangdong

【目的】量化因热带气旋导致的水稻产量损失,认识热带气旋灾害对农户生计和粮食安全的影响,为减少热带气旋灾害对水稻生产影响和提升热带气旋灾害的综合防范能力提供数据支撑与政策依据。【方法】运用2020—2022年广东省水稻种植户的混合截面数据,利用Tobit模型和2SLS模型,基于农户地块数据,从微观层次分析热带气旋导致水稻倒伏的影响和水稻倒伏对水稻产量的影响。【结果】热带气旋灾害在1%显著水平上导致水稻倒伏,即当热带气旋过境时水稻倒伏的可能性大大增加。从广东2020、2021、2022年连续3年农户调查数据来看,由热带气旋引起的倒伏率占全部倒伏率的22.9%;水稻倒伏率每增加10%,水稻产量大约下降2.9%。热带气旋对同一地区不同农户及不同地块上的水稻倒伏及产量的影响存在差异,对沿海地区水稻生产的影响要强于内陆地区。【结论】广东热带气旋灾害导致水稻倒伏,进而对水稻产量产生显著影响,危及粮食安全。为减少热带气旋灾害对广东水稻产量的负面影响,提出如下政策启示:进一步完善农田水利设施,加大高标准农田建设力度,确保因热带气旋导致的洪水能迅速排除;培育耐淹或抗倒伏的水稻品种,并在沿海地区进行推广;做好灾害性气候信息传达,加强热带气旋灾害预警系统建设;进一步完善粮食生产保险政策,提高赔付标准和赔付力度。

【Objective】The study aims to quantify the impact of tropical cyclone disasters on rice output losses during the harvest period.It seeks to understand the impacts of tropical cyclone disasters on farmers’livelihoods and food security.The findings would provide data support for mitigating the impacts of tropical cyclones on rice outputs in Guangdong and offer policy recommendations for enhancing comprehensive disaster prevention capabilities.【Method】With the pooled crosssection data from rice farmers in Guangdong Province from 2020 to 2022,the Tobit and 2SLS models were used to analyze household plot-level data,and the impacts of tropical cyclone disasters on rice outputs were estimated at a micro level.【Result】Tobit model estimates indicate that tropical cyclone disasters significantly cause rice lodging at the 1%significance level,implying that the likelihood of rice lodging increases substantially when tropical cyclones occur.According to the survey data from 2020,2021,and 2022,lodging rate caused by tropical cyclones accounts for 22.9%of the total lodging rate.For every 10%increase in plot-level rice lodging rate,rice outputs decreases by approximately 2.9%.The impacts of tropical cyclones on rice lodging and outputs vary among different households and plots within the same region,with coastal areas being more severely affected than inland areas.【Conclusion】Tropical cyclones in Guangdong cause rice lodging,which significantly impacts rice outputs and threatens food security.To mitigate the negative effects of tropical cyclones on rice production in Guangdong,the following policy recommendations are proposed:further improvement of farmland water conservancy infrastructure,including expanding the construction of high-standard farmland to ensure the rapid drainage of flood water caused by tropical cyclones;breeding and promoting the flood-tolerant or lodging-resistant rice varieties in coastal areas of Guangdong;effective communication of hazardous climate information and strengthening of tropical cyclone disaster early warning systems;and further enhancement of agricultural insurance policies for grain production,with increased compensation standards and payout levels.