新时期我国主销区粮食安全的认识维度、矛盾诊断和破解路径

Understanding Dimensions,Contradiction Diagnosis,and Solution Path of Grain Security in China’s Main Sales Areas in the New Era

为提升重大突发公共安全事件下主销区粮食安全保障能力,厘清产销区省域粮食生产能力与空间变迁情况,进一步提升新时期全国统一大市场背景下国家粮食安全治理能力和长效机制。利用ArcGIS技术结合统计分析方法,以全国粮食主产区、主销区、产销平衡区为研究对象,对新中国成立以来粮食产量和面积进行空间演化分析,并对2011—2023年主产区粮食调出率进行计算。结果发现,全国粮食净调出地更加集中于黑龙江、河南、山东、安徽四省,而作为传统粮食调出大省的四川、江苏、湖北、湖南粮食调出率却不断下降,甚至出现“销区化”倾向。我国粮食安全局面存在“区域非均衡加强”“产销错配”“粮饲错配”等结构性问题,产销跨省域运距过长及常态化成本较高,物流通道之间基本相互独立、互通性和连接性较差。鉴于此,提出应在大食物观下,进一步压实主销区保障一定自给率要求,重点提高主销区粮食生产和应急储备能力,建立粮食“产销”跨区域协作长效保障机制;提升主销区粮食主体内生积极性,规避“运动式”的生产方式。

The study was conducted to enhance the food security guarantee capability of the main sales area in the event of major public safety emergencies,clarify the provincial grain production capacity and spatial changes in the production and sales areas,and further improve the national food security governance capacity and long-term mechanism under the background of the unified national market in the new era.Using ArcGIS technology combined with statistical analysis methods,the study analyzes the spatial evolution of grain production and area since the founding of the People’s Republic of China,by taking the main grain production areas,main sales areas,as well as production and marketing balance areas in China as the research objects.The grain export rate of the main grain production areas from 2011 to 2023 is also calculated.Research has found that the net export of grain in China is more concentrated in four provinces including Heilongjiang,Henan,Shandong,and Anhui,while the grain export rates of provinces such as Sichuan,Jiangsu,Hubei,and Hunan continue to decline,and even show a tendency towards“regional sales”.There are structural problems such as regional imbalance strengthening,production and sales mismatch,and grain and feed mismatch in China’s food security.The tr ansportation distance between production and sales across provinces is too far and the normalized cost is high.The logistics channels are basically independent of each other,with poor interoperability and connectivity.It is proposed to further strengthen the requirement of ensuring a certain self-sufficiency rate in the main sales areas by adopting an all-encompassing approach to food,focus on improving the grain production and emergency reserve capacity of the main sales areas,establish a long-term mechanism for cross regional cooperation in grain“production and sales”;and enhance the endogenous enthusiasm of grain producers in the main sales areas and avoid“sports style”production methods.