基于CRITIC和灰色系统理论的地铁深基坑工程施工风险评估:以岱山站深基坑工程为例

Risk Assessment of Subway Deep Foundation Pit Construction Based on CRITIC and Grey System Theory:Taking the Deep Foundation Pit of DaiShan Station as an Example

为了解决深基坑工程风险评估过程中不确定因素众多,风险评估难以量化和主观性过强难题,依托南昌轨道交通3号线岱山站深基坑工程,提出一种将CRITIC(criteria importance though intercrieria correlation)客观赋权法和灰色系统理论相结合的风险量化评估方法,建立了地铁深基坑工程施工期间风险评估指标体系,采用CRITIC法计算各指标的客观权重,结合灰色系统理论进行综合评估,确定地铁深基坑施工安全风险等级和风险值。结果表明:该方法能科学、可靠地评价出深基坑风险等级,减少专家主观因素带来的影响,考虑了指标间的相互联系,能够合理反映深基坑施工风险等级水平,适用于风险因素众多且模糊不定的基坑工程,可以为同类深基坑工程的风险管理提供决策依据。

To address the challenges of numerous uncertain factors,difficult-to-quantify risk assessment,and excessive subjectivity in deep foundation pit project risk assessment,a risk quantification assessment method was proposed that combined criteria importance though intercrieria correlation CRITIC and grey system theory,leveraging the deep foundation pit project of Daishan Station on the Nanchang Rail Transit Line 3.A risk assessment index system was established for the construction period of subway deep foundation pit project.The CRITIC method was used to calculate the objective weights for each metric and,in combination with the theory of grey systems,to determine the safety risk level and risk value of subway deep foundation pit construction.The results show that the proposed method is able to scientifically and reliably assess the risk level of deep basins,reducing the influence of expert subjective factors and taking into account the interrelation of the indicators.It can reasonably reflect the level of risk in deep foundation pit construction and is suitable for foundation pit engineering where there are numerous risk factors and ambiguities.It can provide a decision basis for risk management of similar deep-basin pit projects.