基于事故树的N-K模型施工事故风险耦合分析

Coupling Analysis of Construction Accident Risk in N-K Model Based on Fault Tree

为了研究水平定向钻施工事故风险,考虑事故树定性分析与N-K模型(N为系统的组件数量,K为每个组件与其他组件的交互数量)定量分析方法的缺点,从人为、设备、环境及管理4类风险因素构建一种基于事故树的N-K施工事故风险分析综合模型。通过建立事故树施工底层事件与N-K模型耦合风险因素集合映射关系,分别计算单因素、双因素以及多因素耦合风险概率,求解风险耦合值。结果表明:水平定向钻施工事故风险概率随着风险耦合因素的增加而增大;三因素耦合作用时,设备-环境-管理耦合作用值最大为0.2608,人为-设备-管理次之为0.2034;双因素耦合作用时,环境-管理耦合作用值最大为0.1554;水平定向钻施工事故共有50种引发事故的可能途径,可以按照准备阶段、导向孔钻进阶段、扩孔阶段、管道回拖阶段与规划管理阶段对整体事故风险进行分阶段预防。研究成果一方面可为风险研究提供新的综合模型,另一方面也可为水平定向钻安全施工提供重要的参考依据。

In order to study the accident risk of horizontal directional drilling construction,considering the shortcomings of fault tree qualitative analysis and N-K model(N is the number of components in the system,K is the number of interactions between each component and other components)quantitative analysis method,a comprehensive model of N-K construction accident risk analysis based on fault tree was constructed from four risk factors:human,equipment,environment and management.By establishing the mapping relationship between the underlying events of fault tree construction and the coupling risk factors of N-K model,the single factor,double factor and multi-factor coupling risk probabilities were calculated respectively,and the risk coupling value was solved.The results show that the risk probability of horizontal directional drilling construction accidents increases with the increase of risk coupling factors.When the three factors are coupled,the maximum value of equipment-environment-management coupling is 0.2608,followed by man-equipment-management is 0.2034.When the two factors are coupled,the maximum value of the environment-management coupling effect is 0.1554.There are 50 possible ways to cause accidents in horizontal directional drilling construction accidents.The overall accident risk can be prevented in stages according to the preparation stage,the guide hole drilling stage,the reaming stage,the pipeline pullback stage and the planning management stage.On the one hand,the research results can provide a new comprehensive model for risk research,on the other hand,it can also provide an important reference for the safe construction of horizontal directional drilling.