摘要
基于省际面板数据,构建中介效应面板数据模型,运用逐步回归法与Sobel检验法实证分析农业信贷担保、农村金融供给对农户家庭增收的直接效应与中介效应。实证研究发现,农业信贷担保与农村金融供给均对农户家庭增收有显著的促进效应,且在农业信贷担保影响农户家庭增收过程中,农业信贷担保对农户家庭增收产生的总效应为0.091,其中直接效应为0.067,通过农村金融供给产生的中介效应为0.024,中介效应占总效应比重为26.37%,且该基准估计结果通过了稳定性检验与内生性检验。由此表明农业信贷担保对农户家庭增收有显著的促进效应,且在农业信贷担保驱动农户家庭增收过程中,农村金融信贷供给发挥了一定的促进作用,但中介效应占比较低表明农业信贷担保政策并未充分协同农村金融政策开展涉农信贷融资担保服务,以致于为农户家庭提供的信贷支持相对有限。同时,地区异质性分析表明东部地区农业信贷担保对农户家庭增收有显著的直接效应,且通过农村金融供给的中介效应发挥了增收效果;中部地区农业信贷担保的直接效应与间接效应均不显著;西部地区农业信贷担保的总效应较弱且主要依赖于农村金融供给中介效应的支撑。
Based on inter-provincial panel data,this study constructs a panel data model of intermediary effects,and empirically analyzes the direct and intermediary effects of agricultural credit guarantee and rural financial supply on the increase of household income by using step-up regression method and Sobel test method.The empirical study finds that both agricultural credit guarantee and rural financial supply have a significant promoting effect on the increase of household income,and in the process of agricultural credit guarantee affecting the increase of household income,the total effect of agricultural credit guarantee on the increase of household income is 0.091,of which the direct effect is 0.067,and the intermediary effect through rural financial supply is 0.024.The mediating effect accounted for 26.37%of the total effect,and the benchmark estimation results passed the stability test and endogeneity test.This indicates that agricultural credit guarantee has a significant promoting effect on the income increase of rural households,and in the process of agricultural credit guarantee driving the income increase of rural households,the supply of rural financial credit plays a certain promoting role,but the relatively low proportion of intermediary effect indicates that agricultural credit guarantee policies have not fully coordinated with rural financial policies to carry out agriculture-related credit financing guarantee services.As a result,credit support for rural households is relatively limited.At the same time,the regional heterogeneity analysis shows that agricultural credit guarantee has a significant direct effect on the increase of household income in the eastern region,and it plays a role in the increase of household income through the intermediary effect of rural financial supply.The direct and indirect effects of agricultural credit guarantee in central China are not significant.The total effect of agricultural credit guarantee in western China is weak and mainly depends on the support of rural financial supply intermediation effect.
作者
陈治国
李庆海
李成友
CHEN Zhiguo;LI Qinghai;LI Chengyou(College of Economics and Management,Xianyang Normal University,Xianyang,Shaanxi 712000,China;School of Economics,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210023,China;School of Finance,Shandong University of Finance and Economics,Jinan,Shandong 250014,China)
出处
《金融教育研究》
2024年第6期32-44,共13页
Research of Finance and Education
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“数字农业赋能农业绿色转型的效应、机制与政策”(22BGL165)
教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目“阶层主体性、家庭资产配置与优化路径研究”(19YJC790056)
关键词
农业信贷担保
农村金融供给
农户家庭收入
中介效应
Agricultural credit guarantee
Rural financial supply
Peasant household income
Mediating effect