双碳背景下湖南物流业碳排放脱钩及影响因素研究

Study on Decoupling of Carbon Emission and Influencing Factors of Hunan Logistics Industry under "Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality" Background

中国政府在第七十五届联合国大会一般性辩论上郑重宣布“中国二氧化碳排放量力争于2030年前达到峰值,努力争取2060年前实现碳中和”,强调了实现“双碳”目标是一项长期任务,要坚定不移、科学有序的推进。文章采用联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)提供的碳排放计算公式,选取湖南物流业2010—2020年的能源消耗数据进行碳排放量测算,运用Tapio脱钩模型对湖南物流业碳排放的脱钩状态进行实证分析,在此基础上,文章对湖南物流业碳排放影响因素进行对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)分解,结果表明能源强度效应、经济产出效应和人口规模效应对湖南物流业的碳排放起到拉升作用,而能源结构效应则起到抑制作用。基于此,文章最后从优化湖南物流业能源消费结构,提高能源利用效率、提高湖南物流业的发展质量及加快湖南物流业产业集群发展等方面提出了相应的对策建议。

At the general debate of the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly,the Chinese government solemnly declared that"China's carbon dioxide emissions will strive to peak before 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060",stressing that achieving the goal of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"is a long-term task,which should be advanced unswervingly,scientifically and orderly.In this paper,the carbon emission calculation formula provided by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)is used to calculate the carbon emission by selecting the energy consumption data of Hunan logistics industry from 2010 to 2020.The Tapio decoupling model is used to make an empirical analysis of the decoupling state of Hunan logistics industry's carbon emission.Finally,the LMDI decomposition is carried out on the influencing factors of Hunan logistics industry carbon emissions.After decomposition,the energy intensity effect,economic output effect and population size effect can increase the carbon emissions of Hunan logistics industry,while the energy structure effect can inhibit the carbon emissions.Based on this,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the aspects of optimizing the energy consumption structure of Hunan logistics industry,improving energy utilization efficiency,improving the development quality of Hunan logistics industry and accelerating the development of Hunan logistics industry cluster.