中国数字普惠金融的发展模式探究:经济与民生的视角

Exploration of the Development Model of Digital Inclusive Finance in China:An Ec Puhlic Velihei Perspective

党的二十大强调要实现人民共同富裕,普惠金融高质量发展发挥着关键作用。现阶段中国数字普惠金融已取得显著成果,但数字普惠金融新风险显现和数字普惠金融发展不平衡的问题仍然严峻,这要求深入剖析数字普惠金融发展脉络,从发展模式中总结经验教训,为未来数字普惠金融高质量发展找到切入点。数字普惠金融的发展是其供给因素和需求因素长期共同作用的结果,本文从供需角度考虑数字普惠金融发展的影响因素,利用有限混合模型客观分组的功能理清其发展模式及模式转换过程,并基于高维中介模型深入探究影响因素的作用机制。研究表明:(1)经济基础、设施基础、民生需求和政府能力是中国数字普惠金融发展的主要影响因素。(2)中国数字普惠金融发展的影响因素存在动态演变,即经济基础与民生需求分别在不同阶段发挥主要驱动作用,呈现出“经济基础主导(供给推动)—民生需求主导(需求拉动)—经济基础主导(供给推动)”的增长模式转换特征。(3)数字普惠金融发展模式的差异和模式转换来源于其影响因素之间的作用机制转变。本文的重要发现在于揭示中国部分地区数字普惠金融发展资源的错配现象,即处在瓶颈阶段的地区往往拥有更丰富的数字普惠金融发展资源,而其数字普惠金融的发展需求却显著低于其他地区,发展成本也高于其他地区。研究结论能够为数字普惠金融的高质量发展战略制定提供参考。

Over the past decade, China's digital inclusive finance has achieved remarkable success, positioning the country at the forefront of global inclusive finance. This paper delves deeply into the development trajectory of digital inclusive finance in China, summarizing the unique model and experience that have emerged. Furthermore, while significant progress has been made, challenges such as the emergence of new risks and the persistent imbalance in development remain prominent. This paper seeks to identify the underlying issues within previous development models to find entry points for the high-quality advancement of digital inclusive finance in the future.Utilizing data from 31 provincial-level regions in China between 2011 and 2021, this paper conducts an empirical study employing methods such as the finite mixture model. The conclusions are as follows.(1) Economic foundation, infrastructure, public wellbeing demand, and government capacity are the primary factors influencing the development of digital inclusive finance in China. Among them, the economic foundation and infrastructure represent the supply-side drivers, while public wellbeing demand represents the demand-side pull. The attention of local governments to digital, inclusive, and financial matters serves as an explanatory factor in the classification of digital inclusive finance development models in China. Specifically, three models emerge: primary, intermediate, and bottleneck stages.(2) The driving factors of digital inclusive finance in China exhibit dynamic evolution, with the economic foundation and public wellbeing demand playing the main driving roles at different stages, reflecting a transition in the growth path characterized by “economic foundation-led(supply-driven)-public wellbeing demand-led(demand-pulled)-economic foundation-led(supplydriven).” The growth paths of digital inclusive finance across the 31 provincial-level regions can be categorized into leading, normal, and lagging development stages.(3) The differences in development models and growth path transitions of digital inclusive finance stem from shifts in the interaction mechanisms among these influencing factors. Specifically, the dual drive of the economy and public wellbeing demand originates from the emergence and subsequent decline of the intermediary path, that is, “economic foundation influences public wellbeing demand, which in turn influences digital inclusive finance.”Particularly through the discussion of the bottleneck stage, it is evident that there is room for optimization in the allocation of digital inclusive finance development resources. On the one hand, from the perspective of public wellbeing demand(demand-side), regions in the bottleneck stage exhibit a significantly lower need for digital inclusive finance development compared to those in other development stages. On the other hand, considering the driving effect of the economic foundation, the difficulty and cost of developing digital inclusive finance in regions in the bottleneck stage are notably higher than in other development stages. Therefore, it is imperative to guide the flow of digital inclusive finance development resources from regions with leading development to those with lagging development.The policy implications of this study are as follows. First, local governments should tailor digital inclusive finance development strategies to their specific circumstances. They should reassess and identify the current stage of digital inclusive finance development within their regions and craft strategies that align with local conditions and needs. Second, the central government should strategically allocate resources for the development of digital inclusive finance. This allocation should take into account the diverse stages and specific needs of different regions to promote coordinated regional development. Third, efforts should be intensified to enhance financial literacy among residents, emphasize innovation in digital finance, and improve risk management to overcome the bottlenecks in digital inclusive finance development. Through digital financial innovation, the capacity of digital inclusive finance to meet higher quality, more diverse, and personalized financial needs should be strengthened. Additionally, improving residents' financial literacy will help them better understand their risk tolerance and more effectively use digital inclusive finance products and services, thereby overcoming the self-exclusion effect described in financial exclusion theory. Fourth, fostering the integration of economic foundations with financial technology is essential to meet broader public wellbeing needs. Reflecting on the action path reveals that one way to break through the bottleneck stage lies in a shift of mechanisms—if the “economic foundation–public wellbeing demand-digital inclusive finance” pathway can be reactivated, public wellbeing demand in regions in the bottleneck stage will once again drive the development of digital inclusive finance.