贸易政策冲击下的跨国供应链断裂与重构研究

Global Supply Chain Disruption and Restructuring under Trade Policy Shocks

近年来各类贸易政策冲击使全球产业链步入深度调整期,“健全提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平制度”成为当前经济工作的重点。本文基于FactSet Revere全球供应链数据,对中国上市公司的海外供应链关系进行追踪,考察了美国对华加征关税这一贸易政策冲击下中国上市公司海外供应链的变迁动态与重构模式。研究表明:贸易政策冲击显著提高了“断链”风险,但当产品难以替代、契约成本较高或双方具有长期合作基础时,供应链表现出更强韧性。进一步研究供应链重构模式发现,中美企业间“断链”难以在短期内恢复,但中国企业会通过将供应链转移至近岸、本土以及其他欧美国家以实现风险规避,同时调整产业范围完成供应链重构,这一过程在企业具备较高的信息搜寻效率和较强的多元化布局能力时更易实现。在当前全球产业分工格局深刻调整背景下,本文研究结论可以为中国有效应对外部经贸冲击、提升供应链韧性,完善高水平对外开放体制机制提供决策参考。

With increasing international economic and policy uncertainties as well as the resurgence of trade protectionism,frequent adjustments and sudden shifts in trade policies pose significant challenges to the stability of global supply chains.Thus,accurately assessing the risks and impacts of trade policy shocks on Chinese enterprises within the global supply chain network and identifying response strategies and specific measures taken by micro-entities are crucial for understanding and navigating the ongoing transformation of global supply chains.It also carries significant policy implications and practical relevance for clarifying China's strategic direction and response measures in the context of accelerating global supply chain restructuring.Based on that,our study takes the U.S.tariff hikes on imported Chinese products starting in March 2018 as a representative case of trade policy changes.By using the FactSet Revere database,we identify and track supply chain relationships between Chinese listed companies and overseas customers,empirically examining the dynamic patterns of supply chain disruption and restructuring under trade policy shocks.Our study finds that(1)trade policy shocks significantly affect the continuity of supply chains.Following the U.S.tariff hikes,the probability of supply chain disruption between Chinese firms and the U.S.partners increases significantly due to the substantial rise in tariff costs.Also,we explore the key factors influencing supply chain resilience,which reveals that supply chain resilience is notably stronger with lower product substitutability,higher contractual costs,and a longer cooperation relationship between suppliers and their overseas customers.(2)We also focus on patterns of supply chain restructuring under trade policy shocks.On the one hand,once supply chains are disrupted,it is difficult to recover in the short term.On the other hand,new cooperation networks rapidly form as old supply chains break,leading to a shift in supply chain relationships.Specifically,companies tend to re-establish supply chain relationships near-shore and domestically,as well as in other developed areas of Europe and America outside the United States.Accordingly,firms adjust their industrial scope.The success rate of supply chain restructuring depends on more transparent and timely information as well as a diversified product-market structure.The contributions of our study are as follows.(1)The existing research on the economic impacts of trade policy shocks primarily focuses on macroeconomic effects or the overall impact on firms,with lttle discussion about the supply chain relationship between firms.We provide a new empirical perspective by examining the inter-firm supply chain relationships at the micro level.(2)Regarding the issue of supply chain disruption and restructuring under external shocks,previous literature has mainly focused on discussing the impact of external shocks such as natural disasters,public health crises,and socio-political conflicts,while the impact of trade policy shocks and their micro-mechanisms still require further study.We focus on trade policy changes,a specific external shock less addressed in this strand of literature,and further reveal the roles of increased trade costs and trade policy uncertainties.(3)By considering the dynamic changes from overseas supply chain disruption to restructuring,we comprehensively capture the dynamic patterns of firms'crossborder strategic adjustments under external shocks.According to the above findings,we propose corresponding policy recommendations for the government from four aspects:strengthen global strategic planning and policy coordination to enhance the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises in the global market;promote institutional opening up to align domestic market rules with international standards,thereby reducing institutional transaction costs;increase support for digital empowerment of enterprises to improve their efficiency in overseas information search and market response;and keep advancing the construction of a unified national market to break down regional barriers within the domestic market and enhance the linkage effects between domestic and international markets.In the increasingly complex global economic landscape,these measures can help to enhance the risk resistance of Chinese enterprises within global supply chains and strengthen the overall economic security and autonomy.