碳中和目标下中国废钢资源量预测及高质利用策略

Scrap resource forecasting and high-quality utilization strategy research under carbon neutrality

废钢的高质化利用是中国钢铁行业实现绿色低碳发展以及“碳达峰”“碳中和”的重要途径。分析了国内外废钢利用现状及中国钢铁行业废钢利用存在的问题;采用动态物质流分析方法预测了中国碳中和目标下废钢资源量及社会钢铁蓄积量变化情况,结果表明,2030年中国预期实现碳达峰时,社会钢铁蓄积量有望达到150亿t以上,随后由于钢需求量的逐渐下降和各下游行业发展趋于稳定,蓄积量的增长速度也会缓慢下降。2040年以后,中国的社会钢铁蓄积量将维持在200亿t左右,届时人均钢铁蓄积量将与欧美等发达国家持平。随着钢铁社会蓄积量的持续增加,未来废钢资源量不足的问题将得到缓解,2040年以前中国的废钢资源量将迎来一段稳定发展时期,2050年以后,由于社会发展趋于稳定和钢铁需求量的逐渐下降,废钢资源量也将呈现出下降的趋势;从废钢在高炉-转炉流程和电炉流程的利用角度分析了中国钢铁生产流程变化以及废钢利用对钢铁行业节能降碳的影响,结果表明,无论是在长流程还是短流程中,提高废钢使用比例均能显著降低吨钢综合能耗和二氧化碳排放;指出推进废钢资源的高质化利用要从完善和健全废钢回收利用体系、提高废钢分类和预处理能力、拓宽使用场景提高废钢利用、推动税收优惠措施等方面入手,从而提高废钢资源循环利用效率,助力碳中和目标实现。

The high-quality utilization of scrap steel is an important way for China′s iron and steel industry to achieve green and low-carbon development,as well as"carbon peak"and"carbon neutrality".It analyzes the current situation of scrap utilization worldwide,as well as the problems in scrap utilization in China′s steel industry;the dynamic material flow analysis method was used to predict the changes in scrap steel resources and steel social stock under China′s carbon neutrality target.The results showed that by 2030,when China is expected to achieve an overall carbon peak,the steel social stock is expected to reach more than 15 billion tons.Subsequently,due to the gradual decrease in steel demand and the stable development of downstream industries,the growth rate of steel storage will also slow down.After 2040,China′s steel social stock will be maintained at around 20 billion tons,and the per capita steel stock will be on par with developed countries such as Europe and America.With the continuous increase in the accumulation of steel in society,the problem of insufficient scrap steel resources will be alleviated in the future.Before 2040,China′s scrap steel resources will enter a period of stable development.After 2050,due to the trend of stable social development and the gradual decrease in steel demand,the scrap steel resources will also show a downward trend;from the perspective of the utilization of scrap in the blast furnace converter process and electric furnace process,it analyzes the changes in China′s steel production process and the impact of scrap utilization on energy conservation and carbon reduction in the steel industry.The results showed that increasing the proportion of scrap utilization can significantly reduce the comprehensive energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions per ton of steel,whether in long or short processes;it is pointed out that promoting the high-quality utilization of scrap steel resources should start from improving and perfecting the scrap steel recycling and utilization system,improving the classification and pretreatment capacity of scrap steel,expanding the use scenarios to improve scrap steel utilization,promoting tax incentives,and other aspects,in order to improve the efficiency of scrap steel resource recycling and help achieve carbon neutrality goals.