机会增长、劳动力流动约束与城市包容性就业——基于严格控制特大城市人口规模政策的准自然实验

Opportunity Growth,Labor Mobility Constraints,and Inclusive Urban Employment--A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on the Policy of Strictly Controlling the Population Size of Megacities

本文聚焦于衡量城市职业机会公平性的职业多样性指标,以严格控制特大城市人口规模政策为准自然实验,采用双重差分法实证检验了抑制劳动力流动的政策对城市职业多样性的影响及其可能的机制。研究表明:(1)劳动力流动提高了城市的职业多样性,而严格控制特大城市人口规模政策的实施显著降低了城市的职业结构多样性;且进一步的分析证实了抑制劳动力流动的政策将损害劳动者的福利,其工资水平和劳动参与机会都将受到负面影响。(2)城市人口集聚与数字经济发展都有利于城市职业多样性的提升,即促进了城市劳动力市场的包容性与就业公平。(3)在我国不同地区,劳动力流动对于城市职业结构的影响存在差异。随着特大城市人口规模控制政策的实施,中部及西部地区城市的劳动力流入对城市职业结构多样性发展的积极影响被抑制。因此,有效落实就业优先战略应当发挥数字经济对就业的驱动作用,引导劳动力要素合理、有序流动,促进职业机会公平,进而实现更加充分更高质量就业。

This paper focuses on occupational diversity index to measure the fairness of urban occupational opportunities,and empirically examines the impact of policies that inhibit labor mobility on urban occupational diversity and its possible mechanisms using the difference-in-differences method,based on the policy of strictly controlling the population size of megacities as a quasi-natural experiment.The results show that(1)labor mobility improves urban occupational diversity,while the implementation of policies to strictly control the population size of megacities significantly reduces urban occupational structure diversity.And further analysis confirms that the policy of curbing labor mobility will harm the well-being of workers,whose wage levels and opportunities for labor force participation will be negatively impacted.(2)Urban population agglomeration and the development of the digital economy are both conducive to increased occupational diversity in cities,promoting inclusiveness and employment equity in urban labor markets.(3)In different regions of China,there are differences in the impact of labor mobility on urban occupational structure.With the implementation of the policy of population size control in megacities,the positive impact of labor mobility on the development of diversity of urban occupational structure in cities in the central and western regions has been suppressed.Thus,the effective implementation of the employment priority strategy should give full play to the role of the digital economy as a driver of employment,guide the reasonable and orderly movement of labor factors,promote fairness in occupational opportunities,and thus achieve fuller and higher-quality employment.