“一带一路”沿线国家的人口迁移及其演化

Analysis of the Characteristics and Evolution of Population Migration in the Countries along the Belt and Road Initiative

为探究“一带一路”沿线国家的人口迁移特征及演化,在复杂系统科学的视角下,基于1960—2020年的人口迁移数据构造网络,通过抽取骨干网、社团划分、应用PageRank重要性评价等方法进行分析。研究发现:该区域国家的人口流入流出逐步趋于平衡,开放程度逐年上升;迁移过程普遍具有“抱团性”和“聚集性”特征;该区域大部分国家在世界移民网络中的影响力处于领先位置。此研究为各国的人口政策提供了证据和基础。

To explore the population migration characteristics and evolution patterns of BRI countries,this paper constructs a network based on population migration data from 1960 to 2020 from the perspective of complex systems science,and conducts analysis by extracting backbone networks,community divisions,and application of PageRank importance evaluation method.The results demonstrate that the migration volume of inflows and outflows within BRI countries has tended to be balanced,and the degree of openness is increasing year by year.And the migration process generally has"cohesion"and"aggregation".The influence of most BRI countries in the global network is higher than the world average.This study provides evidence and basis for the population policies of various countries.