基于复杂网络的天然气管道网络风险传播研究

A Study of Risk Propagation in Natural Gas Pipeline Networks Based on Complex Networks

为改善管道安全监控与维护,探究天然气管道网络最优风险传播路径。首先,基于复杂网络理论构建网络拓扑结构,利用应用熵权—TOPSIS法对网络节点重要性排序。其次,构建天然气管道网络风险传播模型,定义网络节点失效率和脆弱度,得到蓄意破坏与随机破坏策略下节点的风险传播度和风险最优传播路径。最后,以上海市天然气管道网络为例进行实证分析,结果表明,级联风险情况下的蓄意破坏传播风险度总和大于随机破坏,为管道拓扑优化与维护提供依据。

To improve pipeline safety monitoring and maintenance,the optimal risk transmission path of the natural gas pipeline network is explored.Firstly,the network topology is constructed based on complex network theory,and the importance of network nodes is ranked by entropy weight-TOPSIS method.Secondly,the risk propagation model of the natural gas pipeline network is constructed,the failure rate and vulnerability of network nodes are defined,and the risk propagation degree and optimal risk propagation path of nodes under deliberate and random failure strategies are obtained.Finally,based on the empirical analysis of the Shanghai natural gas pipeline network,the results show that the total risk of intentional damage propagation is greater than that of random damage in the case of cascade risk,which provides a basis for pipeline topology optimization and maintenance.