企业风险水平与对外直接投资区位选择——基于异质性企业理论的实证分析

Enterprise Risk Level and Location Choice of OFDI:An Empirical Analysis Based on Heterogeneous Firm Theory

本文在异质性企业理论框架下,构建了企业风险水平影响对外直接投资(OFDI)区位选择的理论模型,揭示了企业风险水平与东道国市场规模、自然资源、战略资产、制度质量等因素对企业OFDI决策的影响机制。在此基础上,通过匹配中国商务部《境外投资企业(机构)名录》与A股上市企业数据构建企业微观数据集,并运用条件Logit模型进行实证检验。结果表明:企业风险水平与东道国进入门槛之间的关系决定了企业的OFDI决策,东道国市场环境的恶化会提高进入门槛,削弱企业投资倾向,但企业的低风险水平能够提高其投资概率。我国企业总体倾向于投资市场规模较大、自然资源丰裕、地理距离较近、进入便利度及制度质量较高的东道国。较低的企业风险水平弱化了市场规模、地理距离、制度质量等东道国因素对区位选择决策的消极影响,但强化了东道国进入便利度的影响;而高风险水平则强化了除进入便利度外的东道国因素的消极影响,使得企业更加倾向于进入门槛较低的国家。

In recent years,under the guidance of enterprises'“going global”strategy and the“Belt and Road”Initiative,the scale of Chinese enterprises'foreign direct investment(OFDI)has been growing year by year.However,in the face of the complex international investment environment,Chinese enterprises are still facing huge potential risks in the process of“going global”.Due to the lack of investment experience and in-depth investigation of the host country market,many enterprises often fail to acquire,invest in limited,or even end up in failure.Therefore,under the theoretical framework of heterogeneous enterprise,exploring the relationship between firm risk level and investment location choice can help enterprises actively cope with the opportunities and challenges of globalization,and point out the direction for further improving OFDI quality and optimizing investment structure.The existing literature on the location choice of China's OFDI is rich,but most of the empirical analysis is based on the flow or stock data of China's OFDI at the macro level,while relatively few literatures examine the impact of heterogeneity characteristics on OFDI location choice at the firm level.On ROA and enterprise of foreign direct investment research,scholars usually is the host country factors influence on enterprise foreign direct investment risk,and ROA as proxy variable of enterprise risk level,but there is no literature to investigate the factors from the perspective of business risk level heterogeneity influence on our country enterprise of foreign direct investment location choice.In view of the current turbulent and risk-prone international economic environment,the enterprise risk level is defined based on the uncertainty of future capital inflow,and this index is introduced into the extended enterprise heterogeneity OFDI location choice model,focusing on how the internal risk characteristics of OFDI enterprises affect their international expansion decisions.It may be innovative in the perspective of topic selection and research content.Specifically,under the framework of heterogeneous enterprise theory,a theoretical model of the influence of firm risk level on the location choice of OFDI is constructed,and the influencing mechanism of firm risk level,host country market size,natural resources,strategic assets,institutional quality and other factors on OFDI decision-making is revealled.On this basis,the enterprise micro data set is constructed by matching the List of Overseas Investment Enterprises(institutions)of the Ministry of Commerce of China and the data of A-share listed enterprises,and the conditional Logit model is used for empirical test.The results show that the relationship between the enterprise risk level and the entry threshold of the host country determines the OFDI decision of the enterprise.The deterioration of the market environment of the host country will increase the entry threshold and weaken the investment tendency of the enterprise,but the low risk level of the enterprise can improve its investment probability.On the whole,Chinese enterprises tend to invest in host countries with larger market size,abundant natural resources,close geographical distance,convenience of access and higher institutional quality.Low enterprise risk level weakens the negative influence of host country factors such as market size,geographical distance and institutional quality on location decision,but strengthens the influence of access convenience of host country.However,the high risk level strengthens the negative impact of host country factors except entry convenience,making enterprises more inclined to countries with lower entry barriers.