隐含返工对研发进度影响程度的量化评估

Quantitative Evaluation of Impact of Hidden Rework on Development Progress

在研发项目运行过程中,由于众多不确定因素的影响,经常会发生预测不到的返工,难以准确评估实际进度。在构建表面进度、实际进度、延期程度、延期概率等研发项目运行效果评价指标量化模型的基础上,通过大量仿真数据分析隐含返工对研发进度、延期风险的影响。结果表明:随着研发项目的进行,实际进度与表面进度的差距先增大后减小;随着隐含返工概率、隐含返工影响程度的增大,研发项目的表面进度和实际进度均减慢,进度差距增大,延期风险增大;研发进度、延期风险对隐含返工概率更为敏感。

During the operation of development projects,due to the influence of numerous uncertain factors,unpredictable rework often occurs,making it is difficult to accurately evaluate the actual progress.Based on the establishment of a quantitative model for evaluating the operational effects of development projects such as surface progress,actual progress,delay degree,and delay probability,wa evaluated the impact of hidden rework on development progress and delay risk by a great deal of simulation data analysis.The findings show that,as the R&D project progresses,the gap between actual progress and surface progress first increases and then decreases;As the probability and impact of implicit rework increase,both the surface and actual progress of R&D projects slow down,the progress gap widens,and the risk of delay increases.Finally,development progress and delay risk are more sensitive to the hidden rework probability.